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Tropical Update Aug 8

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. REGENERATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

3. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


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