Weather Area NWS Discussion Aug 8

258 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AT AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS SURGING SWD INTO N FL. THIS HAS SO FAR SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING CONVECTION FIRING SINCE ABOUT 17Z OVER THE FL ZONES AS WELL
AS TO THE W OVER WFO MOBILE`S FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COASTS AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NE FL COAST. FOR TONIGHT AND MON...THIS
FEATURE WILL STILL BE E OF THE PENINSULA HELPING TO PULL SOME LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TUTT
FEATURE WILL ALSO AID IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. POPS WILL TAPER OFF
FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE FL PANHANDLE AND
COASTAL WATERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SE AL AND THE FL BIG BEND.
SILENT 10 POPS WILL BE USED FURTHER NE ACROSS MOST OF OUR GA ZONES.
FOR MON...WE SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE SILENT 10S ONCE AGAIN IN GA. THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
ALLOW MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO THE PAST FEW MORNING. THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW SPOTS THAT GET INTO THE LOWER 70S.
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MON PROMISES TO BE A HOT DAY WITH COASTAL
AREAS GETTING INTO THE MID 90S AND MOST INLAND AREAS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH DEW POINTS DOWN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...MAX HEAT INDICES
WILL BE HELD TO 105 DEGREES OR LESS IN ALL BUT A FEW AREAS.

FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT PERIOD...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
DEPENDS ON THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TUTT FEATURE THAT WILL BE
CROSSING S FL. THE GFS DOESN`T QUITE SEEM TO KNOW HOW TO HANDLE THE
SYSTEM JUST YET. THE EURO IS TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE GULF (TONIGHT). WE PREFERRED TO USE THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT. FOR REFERENCE...THE TPC/HPC COORDINATED POSITION FOR THE LOW
IS 28N AND 86W AT F72 OR 12Z WED. THIS IS AT THE SAME LATITUDE AS
THE NAM SOLUTION AND JUST ABOUT 90 MI TO THE E. CONCERNING THE
CHARACTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP
TRUE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS CONSIDERING THE ATTENDANT TUTT.
HOWEVER...THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED
VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS BY THE TPC AND GULF COAST
WFOS.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
THIS DISCUSSION IS BASED ON THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO A TUTT CELL.
BOOKENDED IN THE MIDDLE IS A DEEP LAYER HIGH CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME
INDICATING A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED NORTHWEST
AND HAS GONE ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE ROTATES AROUND THE TUTT CELL AND ENDS UP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER THURSDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE WILDLY. THE
GFS CONTINUES THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE THE EURO
HAS THE UPPER LOW TURN NORTH AND IS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES. THE
GFS ALSO DEEPENS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TROUGH CONSIDERABLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE EURO HAS A DEEP LAYER HIGH SITUATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...AS YOU CAN SEE...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM GFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. POPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT WILL BECOME NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
W WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO N OVERNIGHT AND THEN E ON MON MORNING.
AS STATED ABOVE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE NAM MODEL WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GULF FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. WE BRING WINDS UP TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM
MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE S TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL KICK UP 4 FT
OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO 5 FT BY TUE NIGHT. WINDS THEN VEER
TO SE ON WED AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...ALONG WITH SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MON.
SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REQUIRE INCLUSION OF TEMPO MVFR GROUPS AT ECP/TLH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR IS SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH...SO
INCLUDED EITHER A VCTS GROUP OR JUST CB GROUPS TO HANDLE ANY STRAY
STORMS THERE. OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE TOUGHER TO GAGE. DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RESTRICTIONS...THOUGH SOME
DRYING AT THE SURFACE MAY LIMIT OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL. AS A
RESULT...WILL INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES...THOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW IFR OBSERVATIONS IN THE MORNING...
PARTICULARLY AT VLD AND ABY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS ON
MONDAY...SO WILL ONLY SHOW FEW-SCT CLOUDS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE TUTT ON MON...MIN RH WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 40 PERCENT MON
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE E ON TUE WITH AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. RED FLAG CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 74 98 75 95 75 / 20 20 10 40 30
PANAMA CITY NW 76 96 78 97 77 / 30 20 20 30 30
DOTHAN 74 98 75 97 75 / 20 20 05 20 20
ALBANY 75 99 74 96 76 / 10 10 05 20 20
VALDOSTA 72 96 73 94 74 / 10 10 05 40 30
CROSS CITY 73 96 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 50 30
APALACHICOLA 76 94 77 92 77 / 40 20 20 50 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


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