(Oscar's comments at bottom)(from the National Hurricane Center Sunday afternoon Aug 8)..
. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.
Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist -
We posted on this twice back on Friday Aug 6. This weak low is expected to be in the eastern Gulf near Tampa late Monday or early Tuesday, then move west northwest through the north central Gulf.
At this time, we are not sure if it then turns north or continues west once it reaches southeast Louisiana Wednesday. Regardless, if the forecast path up till then holds true, once the low is south then southwest of Dothan, the rain chances will increase for our area.
For now, we do not see this developing into a tropical storm. What might change this thinking would be a slower and / or longer path through the central Gulf.
Remember, it was two years ago (Aug 23-24, 2008) that Tropical Storm Fay cruised westward along the north Gulf coastline and brought welcomed rainfall (and winds up to 30-40 mph).