Tropical Weather Update Aug 07

By: Hurricane Center
By: Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOR EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

...POORLY ORGANIZED COLIN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...5 KM/HR...AND A
FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


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