Weather Discussion NWS Aug 07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
935 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...AFTER AN EXTREMELY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FINALLY WEAKENING AND SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS OF 900 TO
930 PM EDT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS
EVIDENCED BY THE 2.39" AND 2.55" PWATS ON THIS MORNING`S TAE`S 12
AND THIS EVENING`S 00 UTC SOUNDINGS RESPECTIVELY...COMBINED WITH THE
VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...A NEARLY
IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS CREATED. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT OUR ASOS SITES WERE
NOT A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLING OF THE AREA WIDE RAINFALL
TODAY...AS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA RECEIVED A SOLID
1-2 INCHES...WITH MANY EMBEDDED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN FACT...A FLOOD
WARNING BECAME NECESSARY FOR WORTH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE MODERATE FLOODING WAS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ABOUT 15 MINUTES
AFTER THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. AFTER THIS STORM HAD DIMINISHED...RADAR
AND GAUGE CORRECTED RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF 3 TO 5
INCH TOTALS...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH FELL IN A 2-3 HR PERIOD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GENERALLY ON
TRACK...BUT WILL CONSIDER SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE 00 TO 06 UTC POP GRID AS WELL AS THE 06 TO 12 UTC POPS AS
WELL. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...FCST IS WELL ON TRACK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE W-SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TX THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING INTO CA.
DOWNSTREAM...THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE E COAST.
TS COLIN APPEARS TO BE GETTING SHEARED APART BY A TUTT FEATURE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND AL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE N FL
BORDER. AS ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT SO FAR NO
SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
AS THE W COAST ENERGY CONTINUES TO COME ASHORE...THE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BUILD EWD ONCE AGAIN. ALAS...THIS WILL MEAN TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. IN THE INTERIM...WE ARE LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES ON SUN
WITH POPS DOWN TO LOW CHANCE THERE. IN FL...LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
LIKELY POPS WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. WITH REDUCED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE UP N...TEMPS WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE UPPER 90S. AREAS
FROM SE AL ACROSS SW GA INTO THE ERN FL BIG BEND WILL SEE HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS SUN AFTERNOON. WE
WILL DEFER ANY DECISION ON A HEAT ADVISORY...TRADITIONALLY A FIRST
PERIOD PRODUCT...TO THE MID SHIFT. BY MON...THE DRIER AIR WILL HAVE
WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL DROP POPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (40) IN FAVORED SEA BREEZE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH
100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A FEW COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 110 ONCE AGAIN...BUT WE SHOULD SEE DEW
POINTS MIXING DOWN ENOUGH FURTHER INLAND TO PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON THAT DAY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS ONLY. AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
THE TUTT FEATURE MAY BE EMERGING OFF THE W COAST OF FL. THERE IS AS
OF YET NO REAL MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...
BUT IN ANY CASE...ITS IMPACTS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH NEXT SAT.
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS AND A DEEP LAYER
WARM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OTHER KEY
FEATURE IS A TUTT OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE TUTT IS CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND WITH
THE UPPER HIGH BEING SQUEEZED WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS
WELL AS RIDGING DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TUTT. NEW GFS GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TUTT BY A DAY OR SO FROM
EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE EURO STILL HAS THE TUTT PASSING ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AS TUTT APPROACHES...THEREFORE HIGHER
TEMPS AND LOWER POPS ARE IN STORE FOR US THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
INDICES COULD AGAIN APPROACH 110 ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
POSSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS IS
SUGGESTING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS. POPS WILL START OUT BELOW
CLIMO DUE TO THE APPROACHING TUTT...THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW TONIGHT AND SUN WITH A WIND SHIFT
COMMENCING LATE SUN NIGHT. BY MON...WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE OUT OF
THE NW. BY MON NIGHT...THE FORECAST DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE SURFACE
RESPONSE TO THE TUTT FEATURE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE GFS
SOLUTION AND SHOW WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE AND THEN E WITH
SOME INCREASE IN SPEED ACROSS THE ERN ZONES FOR EARLY TUE. WINDS
WILL THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OUT OF THE E OR SE INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUN.
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
TO SEE THE OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASE AFTER ABOUT 02Z. WITH DEBRIS
CLOUDS LIKELY TO NOW CLEAR AT MOST SITES...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AT ABY AND
VLD THAT IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME. WITH AN ACTIVE LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT...WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF A VCTS AT ECP JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 76 95 76 98 76 / 40 60 30 30 10
PANAMA CITY NW 78 94 78 98 78 / 40 60 30 40 10
DOTHAN 75 97 77 97 75 / 30 50 20 20 10
ALBANY 75 97 75 98 75 / 30 30 20 20 05
VALDOSTA 75 95 73 96 74 / 30 50 20 20 10
CROSS CITY 76 93 74 97 75 / 40 60 30 40 20
APALACHICOLA 79 92 76 93 79 / 40 60 30 40 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


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