Up & Down: Tropical Storm Colin Weakens Noticeably

By: National hurricane Center & Oscar Fann
By: National hurricane Center & Oscar Fann

(Oscar's comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

...COLIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 67.1W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER THE ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ON THE ISLAND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist -

I am writing this about a half hour before the next NHC update, and the most recent infrared satellite imagery vividly shows 'Colin' - after strengthening as expected late Thursday afternoon and early evening - has over the last several hours encountered significant west southwestern shear.
This has completely displaced the convection, or energy of the storm well off to the east of the low level circulation. Colin has been stripped bare and regardless what the NHC update says, Colin is really only a tropical depression with tropical storm gusts well to the east of the center.
It looks like this shear will continue for another day or so. Until then, unless the center reforms farther east, Colin is barely hanging on.

Oscar


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