(Oscar's comments at bottom)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
Current visible satellite imagery shows what was Tropical Storm Colin has regained its circulation at the surface, but strong mid level winds have displaced the mid level center off to the east.
Most of the thunderstorm activity is with the mid level center, or southeast of the low level center. These strong mid level winds should relax enough to allow better organization to occur. If these winds die faster than forecast, Colin could begin a rapid intensification, as it continues to move northwest.
What has not changed is Colin still appears to threaten only Bermuda and otherwise stays in the open Atlantic.