Aug 5 Area Weather Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE REGION AND MODELS SHOW THAT
IT WILL BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MEAN 1000 - 700 MB FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND OR JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR POPS ACROSS OUR AREA PER OUR SEA BREEZE
CLIMATOLOGY. MOS POPS SEEM SUSPICIOUSLY LOW SO WILL IGNORE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BUT SHOULD
WILL SEEM SOMEWHAT PLEASANT COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. TODAY MAY MARK THE FIRST TIME IN 17
DAYS FOR TALLAHASSEE WHERE THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE DROPS BELOW
85 DEGREES. THE MORNING LOW AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS 74 AND THE
HIGH AS OF 2 PM WAS 94 DEGREES WITH A CURRENT TEMP OF 92.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A MEAN RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH MEAN TROUGHS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...
TEMPORARILY AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE BRIEFLY...AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK TO THE EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY MID WEEK...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...WITH GENERALLY CLIMO POPS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. A
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A TROPICAL WAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO ARE FORECASTING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. BRIEF PERIODS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BIG BEND
COAST...IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS...BECOMING NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT KDHN...KABY AND KVLD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENSURE THAT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 75 94 76 94 77/ 30 50 30 50 30
PANAMA CITY 79 91 79 92 78/ 30 40 20 40 30
DOTHAN 76 95 76 95 76/ 30 50 30 60 30
ALBANY 76 97 76 97 76/ 30 50 30 60 30
VALDOSTA 75 95 75 95 74/ 30 40 30 60 30
CROSS CITY 75 92 74 93 75/ 30 40 30 50 30
APALACHICOLA 77 92 78 92 78/ 20 40 20 40 20


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