Long Term Forecast

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A MEAN RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH MEAN TROUGHS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...
TEMPORARILY AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE BRIEFLY...AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK TO THE EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY MID WEEK...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...WITH GENERALLY CLIMO POPS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. A
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A TROPICAL WAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO ARE FORECASTING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.


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