Tropical Update Thursday Morning

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
20 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT
MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$


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