WTVY Detailed Forecast

SYNOPSIS – Energy in the Gulf of Mexico will move to the northeast Saturday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Wiregrass. A few showers and storms may pop again Sunday, before we see low rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. The attention then turns towards Erika and a potential track into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, before turning northward.
TONIGHT – Mostly cloudy. Low near 72°. Winds SE at 5 mph.
TOMORROW – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High near 85°. Winds SE at 5-10 mph.
TOMORROW NIGHT – Partly cloudy. Low near 70°. Winds light SE.
SUN: Partly cloudy, isolated showers & t’storms. Low: 70° High: 90° 30%
MON: Partly cloudy, slight rain chance. Low: 71° High: 91° 10%
TUE: Partly cloudy, slight rain chance. Low: 73° High: 91° 20%
WED: Partly cloudy, isolated showers & t’storms. Low: 73° High: 89° 30%
THU: Partly cloudy, isolated showers & t’storms. Low: 71° High: 87° 30%
FRI: Partly cloudy, isolated showers & t’storms. Low: 71° High: 87° 30%

COASTAL FORECAST SATURDAY – Light Chop on Coastal Lakes and Bays. Winds SE at 10 kts. Seas 1-2 feet.

TROPICAL UPDATE – Erika remains a poorly-organized tropical storm just south of the Dominican Republic Friday afternoon. The center is exposed as southwesterly wind shear is keeping the system in check. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola is also hindering development. The computer models have been too aggressive in turning Erika to the northwest, which has yet to happen. A turn to the WNW seems likely, with center to pass somewhere near Cuba. The trough of low pressure in the Gulf will lift to the northeast over the weekend, with the high pressure in the Atlantic likely to keep Erika on more of a WNW track. A second trough is expected to form over the Western Gulf early next week, which should be enough to finally turn Erika northward. What kind of a tropical cyclone will we have at that point and where will it be? Both are good questions, but there is simply too much uncertainty to say for sure. I will say the possibility of Erika making it into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico before turning northward is looking more-likely. This potentially puts areas from the Alabama coast through the Florida Panhandle at risk of a strike sometime around the middle of next week. The strength potential ranges from a weak tropical storm to a strong hurricane. If you haven't noticed, there is more uncertainty than normal from this system, so be sure to stay up-to-date over the weekend.

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