Tropical Storm Cristobal Stays in Open Atlantic

Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 5
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Aug 24 2014

Cristobal Moving Northward...
Heavy Rainfall Affecting The Turks And Caicos And The Southeastern Bahamas...

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
Location...24.5n 73.0w
About 155 Mi...250 Km Ene Of Long Island
About 185 Mi...300 Km Ene Of Great Exuma Island
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...N Or 360 Degrees At 8 Mph...13 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1001 Mb...29.56 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of The Bahamas Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Warning For The Southeastern Bahamas...And The Turks And Caicos Islands.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Central Bahamas...Including Cat Island...The Exumas...Long Island ...Rum Cay...And San Salvador

Interests In The Northwestern Bahamas Should Monitor The Progress Of This System.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Cristobal
Was Located Near Latitude 24.5 North...Longitude 73.0 West.

Cristobal Is Moving Toward The North Near 8 Mph...13 Km/H.

A General Motion Toward The North With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Cristobal Will Pass Near Or To The East Of The Central Bahamas Through Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher Gusts. Some Gradual Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km... Mainly Northeast Through Southeast Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1001 Mb...29.56 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Cristobal Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Totals Of 4 To 8 Inches Over The Turks And Caicos Islands ...As Well As The Southeastern And Central Bahamas Through Tuesday...With Isolated Amounts Around 12 Inches Possible.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Spread Northward Across The Warning Area Through Tonight.

Next Advisory
Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Aug 24 2014

Cristobal's Convective Cloud Pattern Has Not Changed Much During The Past 6 Hours, Other Than Cloud Tops Having Warmed Some. Aircraft And Satellite Data Indicate That The Inner-Core Wind Field Is Still Broad, With Multiple Small Swirls Rotating Around A Mean Center.

Air Force Reserve And Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft Data Indicate The Central Pressure Has Remained Steady At 1001 Mb, So The Initial Intensity Will Be Kept At 40 Kt For This Advisory.

The Initial Motion Is Northward Or 360/7 Kt.

The Nhc Model Guidance Has Come Into Much Better Agreement On This Cycle With The Gfs Track Having Shifted Westward And The Ecmwf Model Having Shifted Eastward. The Rest Of The Models Are Reasonably Close To The Gfs And Ecmwf Solutions.

There Is One Main Difference, However, Which Is The Track Speed, With The Gfs Model Lagging Behind The Ecmwf Model And Some Of The Other Models By More Than 500 N Mi At 120 Hours.

Cristobal Is Expected To Continue Moving Northward Through A Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge And Slow Down Over The Next 72 Hours As A Strong Upper-Level Trough East Of North Carolina Lifts Out To The Northeast. A Second Trough Currently Over The Upper Midwest Is Forecast To Dig Southeastward Along The U.S. East Coast By Days 4 And 5 And Accelerate The Cyclone Northeast Over The North Atlantic. The Official Forecast Track Has Been Shifted Eastward Through 72 Hours, And Then Shows A Faster Forward Speed Similar To The Icon Consensus Model At 96 And 120 Hours.

Light To Moderate Northwesterly To Northerly Shear Is Forecast To Affect Cristobal Through 72 Hours, Which Should Allow For Only Slow Strengthening To Occur. When Cristobal Makes A Northeast Turn And Accelerates After That Time, The Shear Is Expected To Decrease While The Cyclone Is Over Near-29c Sst, Which Should Allow Cristobal To Strengthen Into A Hurricane. The Nhc Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory, And Closely Follows The Consensus Intensity Model Icon.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 24/2100z 24.5n 73.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 25/0600z 24.9n 73.1w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 25/1800z 25.7n 73.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 26/0600z 26.6n 72.8w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 26/1800z 28.4n 72.5w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 27/1800z 31.9n 71.8w 65 Kt 75 Mph
96h 28/1800z 35.0n 66.5w 70 Kt 80 Mph
120h 29/1800z 39.5n 58.0w 70 Kt 80 Mph

Forecaster Stewart

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