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Tropical Storm Debby Update: SIGNIFICANT Track Change Will Impact Our Area

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Summary Of 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...28.4n 85.8w
About 205 Mi...330 Km Ese Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
About 100 Mi...165 Km Ssw Of Apalachicola Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph...95 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 40 Degrees At 3 Mph...6 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb...29.32 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Extended Southward Along The West Coast Of Florida To Englewood.

The Tropical Storm Warning From The Mouth Of The Pearl River
Westward To Morgan City Has Been Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Mississippi-Alabama Border Eastward To The Suwannee River
River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* South Of The Suwannee River To Englewood Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Later Today.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 28.4 North...Longitude 85.8 West.

Debby Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 3 Mph...6 Km/H.

No Significant Motion Is Expected During The Couple Of Days...But This Forecast Continues To Be Uncertain.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph...95 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles...325 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Near Or Over Portions
Of The Northeast Gulf Coast And Are Expected To Reach The Remainder Of The Warning Area By Tonight...Making Outside Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground At The Times Of High Tide Over The Next Few Days...

Apalachee Bay...4 To 6 Ft
Florida West Coast South Of Apalachee Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Coastal Mississippi Eastward To Apalachee Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Southeastern Louisiana...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
5 To 10 Inches Over Much Of The Florida Panhandle...Northern
Florida...Central Florida And Southeastern Georgia...With Isolated
Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches Possible.

Given The Recent Heavy Rainfall And Wet Soil Conditions...These Additional Amounts Will Exacerbate The Flooding Threat Across Portions Of Northern Florida And Southern Alabama.

Total Rain Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Expected Over Coastal
Alabama...Mississippi...Southeastern Louisiana And South Florida...
With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 6 Inches Possible.

Tornadoes...A Few Are Possible Over West And Central Florida
Peninsula Tonight

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...700 Pm Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...1000 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 24 2012

There Has Been A SIGNIFICANT Change In The Forecast Track With This Advisory.

The Official Forecast No Longer Brings Debby Westward Along The Northern Gulf Of Mexico And Instead Keeps The Cyclone Meandering Over The Northeastern Gulf For The Next 3 To 4 Days.

This Forecast Is A Compromise Between The Consistent Eastward
Solution Provided By The Gfs For The Past Several Days And The New Twist Of The Ecmwf.

The Ecmwf Model...Which Has Been Forecasting Debby To Move Westward Along The Gulf Of Mexico... Now Has The Cyclone Meandering For The Next 3 Days Over The Northeastern Gulf.

Since These Two Reliable Models Are In Marginally Better Agreement...I Am A Little More Confident...But Not Completely...That Debby Is Not Going To Turn Westward Over The Gulf.

However...New Official Track Remains A Low-Confidence Forecast.

Debby Is A Sprawling System...With Most Of The Thunderstorm Activity
In A Curved Band Well Removed From The Center.

Data From The Reconnaissance Plane A Few Hours Ago Indicate That The Initial Intensity Remains 50 Knots.

The Shear Is Not Expected To Change Much For The Next Day Or So...But Because Debby Is Forecast To Remain Over Water...There Will Be Some Opportunity For A Slight Strengthening Before The Center Moves Inland.

However...The Cyclone Will Located Be North Of The Area Of High Oceanic Heat Content And The Upwelling Could Halt The Intensification.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 24/2100z 28.4n 85.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
12h 25/0600z 28.7n 85.5w 50 Kt 60 Mph
24h 25/1800z 29.0n 85.5w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 26/0600z 29.0n 85.5w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 26/1800z 29.0n 85.5w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 27/1800z 29.5n 85.5w 60 Kt 70 Mph
96h 28/1800z 30.0n 85.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph
120h 29/1800z 30.5n 85.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland

Forecaster Avila

WTVY-TV meteorologist Oscar Fann's remarks follow...

The new track means the potential for a tremendous amount of rainfall for the entire WTVY-TV coverage - maybe way too much.

The CONCERN will turn to the amount of rainfall DEBBY will bring.... this has the potential to be a drought buster for some areas, while other locations may have to deal with significant flooding.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for all of the coastal area as well as inland portions of Bay, Gulf, Calhoun, Liberty and Franklin counties...

The new track forecast shows there are WEAK steering currents, and
thus the potential for extended heavy rainfall becomes a serious concern.

Meanwhile, tropical storm force winds are expected to continue - mainly east of Panama City into Apalachee Bay through early week.
This ESPECIALLY applies for the Port St Joe, St George Island, Apalachicola, Carabelle, Dog Island, Turkey Point and Alligator Point areas (as well as neighboring inland locations), where the highest winds, heaviest rains, power outages and other possible damage will be likely.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH for ALL of the Florida panhandle counties through Monday (areas south of I-10 could easily receive 5 to 10 plus inches of rain with isolated totals near 15 inches)...


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