Tropical Storm Cristobal Not Stronger...Moving Slowly in Open Atlantic

Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 6
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 24 2014

Cristobal Moving Slowly Northward With No Change In Strength...

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
Location...24.8n 73.1w
About 105 Mi...165 Km Ene Of San Salvador
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...N Or 350 Degrees At 5 Mph...7 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...998 Mb...29.47 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...


Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Central Bahamas...Including Cat Island...The Exumas...Long Island ... Rum Cay...And San Salvador

Interests In The Northwestern Bahamas Should Monitor The Progress Of This System.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Cristobal Was Located Near Latitude 24.8 North...Longitude 73.1 West.

Cristobal Is Moving Toward The North Near 5 Mph.

A Northward To North-Northeastward Motion Is Expected Over The Next Couple Of Days.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Cristobal Will Pass Near Or To The East Of The Central Bahamas Through Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected Overnight...But Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 12 To 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...150 Km From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Cristobal Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Totals Of 4 To 8 Inches Over The Turks And Caicos Islands ... As Well As The Southeastern And Central Bahamas Through Tuesday...With Isolated Amounts Around 12 Inches Possible.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Occur Over Portions Of The Warning Area Through Tonight.

Next Advisory
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 24 2014

Cristobal Is Not A Well-Organized Tropical Cyclone At This Time.

The Deep Convection Has A Ragged Appearance, With Little Or No Banding Features Evident, And This Convection Is Mainly Occurring Well To The South Of The Estimated Center Location.

After Adjusting For Rain Inflation, Sfmr Winds From Aircraft Observations A Few Hours Ago, Indicated That The Intensity Is No More Than 40 Kt.

Also, The Fixes From The Air Force And Noaa Planes, Which Were Flying At Altitudes Of About 1000 And 8000 Feet Respectively, Indicated A Southward Tilt Of The Center With Height. This Is Consistent With Some Northerly Shear Over The Storm As Suggested By Water Vapor Imagery.

Given The Currently Disorganized State Of Cristobal, Not Much Intensification Seems Likely For The Next 12 Hours Or So.

Afterwards, The Global Models Are Predicting A Little More Favorable Upper-Tropospheric Environment With Increasingly Diffluent Flow Over The Tropical Cyclone. The Official Intensity Forecast Is Basically A Blend Of The Ships And Lgem Guidance, And Only A Little Above The Model Consensus.

By 120 Hours, The Global Models Depict The Cyclone Embedded Within A Baroclinic Zone, So Extratropical Transition Should Have Occurred By That Time.

The Motion Has Been Rather Erratic Over The Past Several Hours, But My Best Estimate Is About 350/4 Kt.

Cristobal Is Currently Situated Near A Col Between 2 Anticyclones In The Mid-Level Flow, One Over The United States, And One Over The Central Subtropical Atlantic.

The Dynamical Models Indicate That, Within A Couple Of Days, The Steering Of The Tropical Cyclone Will Become Dominated By Flow On The Northwest Side Of The Atlantic Anticyclone And On The
Southern Side Of A Mid-Latitude Trough.

Therefore, The Motion Is Expected To Gradually Bend To The Right With Some Acceleration Over The Next Several Days. The Official Track Forecast Is Somewhat Faster Than The Previous One After 48 Hours, But Not As Fast As The Latest Dynamical Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 25/0300z 24.8n 73.1w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 25/1200z 25.4n 73.1w 40 Kt 45 Mph
24h 26/0000z 26.4n 72.8w 45 Kt 50 Mph
36h 26/1200z 27.8n 72.4w 50 Kt 60 Mph
48h 27/0000z 29.8n 71.8w 55 Kt 65 Mph
72h 28/0000z 33.5n 69.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
96h 29/0000z 37.5n 62.0w 70 Kt 80 Mph
120h 30/0000z 44.0n 50.0w 60 Kt 70 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Pasch

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