Ingrid Now a Slow Moving Hurricane; Forecast to Slam Mexico near Tampico Early Monday

Hurricane Ingrid Advisory Number 10
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 14 2013

Summary Of 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...21.3n 94.4w
About 195 Mi...315 Km E Of Tuxpan Mexico
About 275 Mi...445 Km Se Of La Pesca Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...N Or 360 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...987 Mb...29.15 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Mexico Has Adjusted The Previous Watches And
Warnings For The Gulf Coast. A Hurricane Warning Has Been Issued
From Cabo Rojo To La Pesca. A Tropical Storm Warning Has Been
Issued From North Of La Pesca To Bahia Algodones...And From South Of Cabo Rojo To Tuxpan. The Tropical Storm Warning From
Coatzacoalcos To South Of Tuxpan Has Been Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Cabo Rojo To La Pesca

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Bahia Algodones
* South Of Cabo Rojo To Tuxpan

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area. A Warning Is Typically Issued 36 Hours Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical Storm
Force Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult
Or Dangerous. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be
Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere Along The Remainder Of The Gulf Coast Of Eastern Mexico Should Monitor The Progress Of Ingrid.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Ingrid Was
Located Near Latitude 21.3 North...Longitude 94.4 West.

Ingrid Is Moving Toward The North Near 7 Mph...11 Km/H...And This Motion Is Expected To Continue Tonight.

A Turn Toward The Northwest And Then Toward The West Is Anticipated On Sunday.

On The Forecast Track...Ingrid Will Reach The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area On Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Some Additional Strengthening Is Forecast For The Next 48 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 80 Miles...130 Km. Noaa Buoy 42055 Located About 65 Miles...110 Km..North-Northeast Of The Center Of Ingrid Recently Reported A Wind Gust Of 42 Mph...68 Km/H.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 987 Mb...29.15 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Rainfall...Ingrid Is Expected To Produce 10 To 15 Inches Of Rain
Over A Large Part Of Eastern Mexico...With Isolated Amounts Of 25
Inches Possible...Especially In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain. These
Rains Are Likely To Result In Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud
Slides.

Wind...Hurricane Conditions Are Expected In The Hurricane Warning
Area By Monday...Although Tropical Storm Conditions Could Begin By
Late Sunday.

Storm Surge...A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As Much As 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center Of Ingrid Makes Landfall. Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Destructive Waves.
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Hurricane Ingrid Discussion Number 10
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 14 2013

The Next Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Not Expected To Be In The Area
Of Ingrid Until Later This Afternoon.

However...An Eye Feature Has Been Present Intermittently On Visible Satellite Images...And Dvorak Estimates From All Agencies... Including The University Of Wisconsin...Indicate That Ingrid Has Become A Hurricane With An Initial Intensity Of 65 Knots. Ingrid Is The Second Hurricane Of The 2013 Season.

Both Oceanic And Atmospheric Conditions Appear To Be Favorable For Some Additional Strengthening During The Next 48 Hours Or So...
Before The Hurricane Makes Landfall Along The Mexican Coast.
The Nhc Intensity Forecast Is A Little Higher Than The Consensus... But Not As High As The Lgem/Ships Model Pair.

None Of The Current Guidance Forecasts Ingrid To Become An Major
Hurricane.

Ingrid Has Continued To Move Northward At About 6 Or 7 Knots Away
From The Southern Bay Of Campeche.

Soon...A Mid-Level Ridge Will Become Established Over The Southern United States And Will Force The Hurricane To Turn Westward Toward The Coast Of Mexico.

While The The Westward Turn Is Very Likely To Occur...As Shown By All The Models...There Is Uncertainty In The Timing Of Landfall.

The Gfs Continues To Be The Slowest Model...Keeping Ingrid Over Water For About 60 Hours Or More While The Nhc Forecast Brings The Center To The Coast In About 48 Hours.

The Nhc Track Is A Little South Of The Multi-Model Consensus... Giving Credit To The West-Southwest Turn Indicated By Both The Gfs And Ecmwf Models Later In The Forecast Period.

In Addition To The Wind Threat...The Moist Flow Resulting From The
Combination Of Ingrid And Tropical Storm Manuel In The Eastern
Pacific Will Continue To Produce Torrential Rains.

Life-Threatening Flooding Over Eastern Mexico Will Remain A Significant Hazard Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 14/2100z 21.3n 94.4w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 15/0600z 22.0n 94.5w 70 Kt 80 Mph
24h 15/1800z 22.7n 95.4w 75 Kt 85 Mph
36h 16/0600z 22.8n 97.0w 75 Kt 85 Mph
48h 16/1800z 22.5n 98.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph...Inland
72h 17/1800z 22.0n 99.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 18/1800z 21.5n 99.0w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
120h 19/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Avila


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