Hurricane Sandy: Late Sunday Afternoon Hurricane Center Update

Sandy Expected To Bring Life-Threatening Storm Surge Flooding To
The Mid-Atlantic Coast...Including Long Island Sound And New York
Harbor...
Will Bring Coastal Hurricane Winds And Heavy Appalachian Snows...

Waves pound Carolina Beach pier in Carolina Beach, N.C., Saturday, Oct 27, 2012 as Hurricane Sandy churns in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Sandy, upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm, was barreling north from the Caribbean and was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland, creating a hybrid monster storm. (AP Photo/The Star-News, Ken Blevins)

Hurricane Sandy Advisory Number 26
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Oct 28 2012

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...33.4n 71.3w
About 270 Mi...435 Km Ese Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
About 530 Mi...850 Km Sse Of New York City
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 50 Degrees At 15 Mph...24 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...952 Mb...28.11 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Discontinued From Surf City
North Carolina Southward.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of Surf City To Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds
* Bermuda

In Addition...Hurricane-Force Winds Are Expected Along Portions Of
The Coast Between Chincoteague Virginia And Chatham Massachusetts.
This Includes The Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point...
The Middle And Upper Chesapeake Bay...Delaware Bay...And The Coasts Of The Northern Delmarva Peninsula...New Jersey...The New York City Area...Long Island...Connecticut...And Rhode Island.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Are Expected North Of Chatham To
Merrimack River Massachusetts...The Lower Chesapeake Bay...And
South Of Chincoteague To Duck North Carolina...The Northern
Endpoint Of The Tropical Storm Warning.

Other Coastal And Inland Watches And Warnings Are In Effect For
These Areas. Please See Statements From Local National Weather
Service Forecast Offices.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States... Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Sandy Was Located Near Latitude 33.4 North...Longitude 71.3 West.

Sandy Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 15 Mph...24 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue This Evening. A Turn To The North And Then The Northwest Is Expected Tonight And Early Monday. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Sandy Is Forecast To Be Near The Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Sandy Is Expected To Transition Into A Frontal Or Wintertime Low Pressure System Prior To Landfall. However...This Transition Will Not Be Accompanied By A Weakening Of The System...And In Fact
A Little Strengthening Is Possible During This Process. Sandy Is
Expected To Weaken After Moving Inland.

Hurricane-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280 Km...From The Center...And Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 520 Miles...835 Km. An Automated Station At Cape Hatteras Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 48 Mph...78 Km/H...With A Gust To 60 Mph...96 Km/H...And A Station At Duck North Carolina 47 Mph...76 Km/H...With A Gust To 59 Mph...94 Km/H. A Buoy Near The Mouth Of The Chesapeake Bay Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 50 Mph...83 Km/H...With A Gust To 59 Mph...94 Km/H.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 952 Mb...28.11 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Occurring Over Coastal
North Carolina And Southeastern Virginia.

Gale Force Winds Are Expected To Arrive Along Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic Coast Later Today...And Reach Long Island And Southern New England By Monday Morning.

Winds Of Hurricane Force Could Reach The Mid-Atlantic States... Including Long Island...By Late Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of An Extremely Dangerous Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Nc North Of Surf City Including Pamlico/Albemarle Sounds...4 To 6 Ft
Se Va And Delmarva Including Lower Chesapeake Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Upper And Middle Chesapeake Bay...1 To 3 Ft

Long Island Sound...Raritan Bay...And New York Harbor...6 To 11 Ft
Elsewhere From Ocean City Md To The Ct/Ri Border...4 To 8 Ft

Ct/Ri Border To The South Shore Of Cape Cod Including Buzzards
Bay And Narragansett Bay...3 To 6 Ft
Cape Cod To The Ma/Nh Border Including Cape Cod Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Ma/Nh Border To The U. S./Canada Border...1 To 3 Ft

Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances.

Given The Large Wind Field Associated With Sandy...Elevated Water Levels Could Span Multiple Tide Cycles Resulting In Repeated And Extended Periods Of Coastal And Bayside Flooding. In Addition...
Elevated Waters Could Occur Far Removed From The Center Of Sandy.

Furthermore...These Conditions Will Occur Regardless Of Whether
Sandy Is A Tropical Or Post-Tropical Cyclone. For Information
Specific To Your Area...Please See Products Issued By Your Local
National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Expected Over Far
Northeastern North Carolina With Isolated Maximum Totals Of 8
Inches Possible. Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8 Inches Are Expected
Over Portions Of The Mid Atlantic States...Including The Delmarva
Peninsula...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible.
Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts
Of 5 Inches Are Possible From The Southern Tier Of New York State
Northeastward Through New England.

Snowfall...Snow Accumulations Of 2 To 3 Feet Are Expected In The
Mountains Of West Virginia...With Locally Higher Totals Tonight
Through Tuesday Night. Snowfall Of 1 To 2 Feet Is Expected In
The Mountains Of Southwestern Virginia To The Kentucky Border...
With 12 To 18 Inches Of Snow Possible In The Mountains Near The
North Carolina/Tennessee Border.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Will Continue From Florida Through
The Mid-Atlantic States For The Next Couple Of Days And Spread Into
The Northeastern States Later Today.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Stewart
_____________________________________________________

Hurricane Sandy Discussion Number 26
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Oct 28 2012

Data From An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate No
Significant Change To The Intensity Of Sandy Has Occurred This
Afternoon...And The Central Pressure Has Remained Nearly Steady At
951-952 Mb Since The Previous Advisory.

Peak 700 Mb Flight-Level Winds Of 78 Kt Were Measured In The Southern Quadrant...But No Sfmr-Adjusted Surface Winds Of Hurricane Force Were Detected In Any Quadrant.

However...Given The Extremely Large Wind Field Of Sandy...It Is Possible That The Aircraft Missed Some Of The Pockets Of Stronger Surface Winds. Therefore...The Initial Intensity Is Being Maintained At 65 Kt.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 050/13 Kt.

The Latest Model Guidance Has Come In Nearly On Top Of The Previous Advisory Track...So There Remains No Significant Changes To The Forecast Track Or Reasoning.

Sandy Should Continue To Interact With A Strong Negatively Tilted
Shortwave Trough That Is Moving East-Southeastward Across The
Tennessee Valley...And Will Reach The U.S. East Coast In About 48
Hours.

As The Trough Continues To Undercut Sandy To Its South...The
Hurricane Will Gradually Lift Northward Over The Next 24 Hours...
Followed By A Turn To The Northwest And West-Northwest After That
Right Up Until Landfall Occurs In About 36 Hours.

The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The Previous Advisory Track...Albeit Slightly Faster After 24 Hours...And Remains Near The Middle Of The Tightly Packed Global And Regional Model Forecasts.

Satellite Imagery Indicates The Vertical Shear Has Been Decreasing ...And Some Weak Outflow Is Now Apparent In The Northern
Semicircle. The Shear Is Expected To Continue To Decrease During
The Next 24 Hours Or So...And As A Result Sandy Is Expected
Maintain A Small Area Of Convection Near The Center While The
Hurricane Remains Over Ssts Greater Than 25c.

In About 24 Hours...The Global Models Show Some Baroclinic Deepening As Sandy Begins Its Turn Toward The Coast. A Transition To An Extratropical Cyclone Is Expected At Or Shortly Before Landfall. However...This Transition Will Not Diminish The Overall Impacts Of This Dangerous Weather System.

As Noted In Previous Advisories...To Avoid A Highly Disruptive
Change From Tropical To Non-Tropical Warnings When Sandy Becomes Post-Tropical...The Wind Hazard North Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area Will Continue To Be Conveyed Through High Wind Watches And Warnings Issued By Local National Weather Service Offices.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 28/2100z 33.4n 71.3w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 29/0600z 35.0n 70.6w 65 Kt 75 Mph
24h 29/1800z 37.7n 71.8w 70 Kt 80 Mph
36h 30/0600z 39.5n 74.8w 65 Kt 75 Mph...Post-Tropical
48h 30/1800z 40.2n 76.7w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
72h 31/1800z 42.7n 76.8w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 01/1800z 44.7n 75.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 02/1800z 45.6n 71.4w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Stewart


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