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Hurricane Sandy About 24 Hours from Delaware Bay

Hurricane Sandy Advisory Number 27
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Oct 28 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...34.5n 70.5w
About 290 Mi...465 Km E Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
About 470 Mi...760 Km Sse Of New York City
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 35 Degrees At 14 Mph...22 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...950 Mb...28.05 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of Surf City To Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds
* Bermuda

In Addition...Hurricane-Force Winds Are Expected Along Portions Of
The Coast Between Chincoteague Virginia And Chatham Massachusetts.
This Includes The Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point...
The Middle And Upper Chesapeake Bay...Delaware Bay...And The Coasts Of The Northern Delmarva Peninsula...New Jersey...The New York City Area...Long Island...Connecticut...And Rhode Island.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Are Expected North Of Chatham To
Merrimack River Massachusetts...The Lower Chesapeake Bay...And
South Of Chincoteague To Duck North Carolina...The Northern
Endpoint Of The Tropical Storm Warning.

Other Coastal And Inland Watches And Warnings Are In Effect For
These Areas. Please See Statements From Local National Weather
Service Forecast Offices.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States... Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Sandy Was
Located Near Latitude 34.5 North...Longitude 70.5 West.

Sandy Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 14 Mph...22 Km/H. A Turn Toward The North Is Expected During The Next Several Hours... With A Turn Toward The Northwest Expected On Monday. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Sandy Will Move Over The Coast Of The Mid-Atlantic States Late Monday Or Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Sandy Is Expected To Transition Into A Frontal Or Wintertime
Low Pressure System Prior To Landfall. However...This Transition
Will Not Be Accompanied By A Weakening Of The System...And In
Fact...A Little Strengthening Is Possible During This Process.
Sandy Is Expected To Weaken After Moving Inland.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280 Km... Mainly To The Southwest Of The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 520 Miles...835 Km. A National Ocean Service Station At The Willoughby Degaussing Station Near Norfolk Naval Station Virginia Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 45 Mph ...72 Km/H...With A Gust To 53 Mph...85 Km/H. A Weatherflow Station At Thimble Shoals Virginia Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 44 Mph...70 Km/H...And A Wind Gust Of 52 Mph...83 Km/H.

The Minimum Central Pressure Based On Air Force Reserve And Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Data Is 950 Mb...28.05 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Occurring Over Coastal
North Carolina And Southeastern Virginia.

Gale Force Winds Are Expected To Arrive Along Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic Coast Later Tonight...And Reach Long Island And Southern New England By Monday Morning.

Winds Of Hurricane Force Could Reach The Mid-Atlantic States... Including Long Island...On Monday. Winds Affecting The Upper Floors Of High Rise Buildings Will Be Significantly Stronger Than Those Near Ground Level.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of An Extremely Dangerous Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Nc North Of Surf City Including Pamlico/Albemarle Sounds...4 To 6 Ft
Se Va And Delmarva Including Lower Chesapeake Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Upper And Middle Chesapeake Bay...1 To 3 Ft

Long Island Sound...Raritan Bay...And New York Harbor...6 To 11 Ft
Elsewhere From Ocean City Md To The Ct/Ri Border...4 To 8 Ft

Ct/Ri Border To The South Shore Of Cape Cod Including Buzzards
Bay And Narragansett Bay...3 To 6 Ft
Cape Cod To The Ma/Nh Border Including Cape Cod Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Ma/Nh Border To The U. S./Canada Border...1 To 3 Ft

Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances.

Given The Large Wind Field Associated With Sandy...Elevated Water
Levels Could Span Multiple Tide Cycles Resulting In Repeated And
Extended Periods Of Coastal And Bayside Flooding.

In Addition... Elevated Waters Could Occur Far Removed From The Center Of Sandy.

Furthermore...These Conditions Will Occur Regardless Of Whether
Sandy Is A Tropical Or Post-Tropical Cyclone

For Information Specific To Your Area...Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Expected Over Far
Northeastern North Carolina With Isolated Maximum Totals Of 8
Inches Possible. Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8 Inches Are Expected
Over Portions Of The Mid Atlantic States...Including The Delmarva
Peninsula...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible.
Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts
Of 5 Inches Are Possible From The Southern Tier Of New York State
Northeastward Through New England.

Snowfall...Snow Accumulations Of 2 To 3 Feet Are Expected In The
Mountains Of West Virginia...With Locally Higher Totals Tonight
Through Tuesday Night. Snowfall Of 1 To 2 Feet Is Expected In The Mountains Of Southwestern Virginia To The Kentucky Border...With 12 To 18 Inches Of Snow Possible In The Mountains Near The North Carolina/Tennessee Border And In The Mountains Of Western
Maryland.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Will Continue From Florida Through
The Mid-Atlantic States For The Next Couple Of Days And Spread Into
The Northeastern States Later Today.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Beven/Roberts
_____________________________________________________

Hurricane Sandy Discussion Number 27
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Oct 28 2012

The Convection Near The Center Of Sandy Has Become A Little Better
Organized This Evening...With A Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
Reporting A 25-35 Mile Wide Eye With An Open Eyewall.

However...The Strongest Winds In The Storm Are Not Occurring In The
Eyewall...As The Noaa And Air Force Reserve Aircraft Found A Large
Area Of At Least 60 Kt Surface Winds About 100-120 N Mi Southwest
Of The Center.

In Addition...The Air Force Plane Reported 700-Mb Flight-Level Winds Of 102 Kt. Based On These Data...And The Likelihood That The Strongest Winds Were Not Sampled...The Initial Intensity Remains 65 Kt.

Sandy Has Turned A Little To The Left During The Past Few Hours...
With The Initial Motion Now 035/12.

There Is Little Change To The Track Guidance Or The Forecast Track Since The Previous Advisory...With Sandy Expected To Turn Northward During The Next Several Hours And Northwestward On Monday.

The Forecast Track Brings The Center Near Over The Coast Of The Mid-Atlantic States In About 30 Hours...And It Should Be Noted That Some Of The Guidance Has An Earlier Landfall Time Than The Official Forecast.

After Landfall...Sandy Is Expected To Merge With The Deep-Layer Baroclinic Trough Over The Eastern United States And Gradually Turn Northward. A Turn Toward The East Is Likely By The End Of The Forecast Period If Sandy Survives That Long.

Vertical Wind Shear Has Decreased Over Sandy...And The Center Is
Moving Over A Locally Warmer Patch Of Water. These Conditions May
Have Allowed The Eyewall Formation...And They Could Lead To Some
Strengthening In Addition To That Caused By Baroclinic Processes.

However...Surface And Upper-Air Data Show That The Process Of
Extratropical Transition Is Beginning...With The Low-Level Cold Front Now Interacting With The West Side Of The Circulation. This
Transition Is Expected To Be Complete Within 24 Hours...But It Will
Not Diminish The Overall Impacts From Winds To Hurricane Strength...Life-Threatening Storm Surge...And Flooding Rains
Associated With This Dangerous Weather System.

Sandy Is Expected To Weaken After Landfall.

As Noted In Previous Advisories...To Avoid A Highly Disruptive
Change From Tropical To Non-Tropical Warnings When Sandy Becomes Post-Tropical...The Wind Hazard North Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area Will Continue To Be Conveyed Through High Wind Watches And Warnings Issued By Local National Weather Service Offices.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 29/0300z 34.5n 70.5w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 29/1200z 36.4n 70.9w 65 Kt 75 Mph
24h 30/0000z 38.7n 73.2w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
36h 30/1200z 39.8n 75.8w 60 Kt 70 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
48h 31/0000z 40.6n 77.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
72h 01/0000z 43.5n 77.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 02/0000z 45.5n 75.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 03/0000z 46.0n 70.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Beven


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