Hurricane Gordon Hours from Eastern Azores: Sunday Late Afternoon Update

Hurricane Gordon Advisory Number 17
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Ast Sun Aug 19 2012

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...36.1n 27.5w
About 160 Mi...255 Km Sw Of Sao Miguel Island In The Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph...140 Km/H
Present Movement...Ene Or 70 Degrees At 21 Mph...33 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...978 Mb...28.88 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Eastern Azores

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Gordon Was
Located Near Latitude 36.1 North...Longitude 27.5 West.

Gordon Is Moving Toward The East-Northeast Near 21 Mph...33 Km/H. This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Day Or So...With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed.

On The Forecast Track The Center Of Gordon Is Expected To Pass Near Or Over The Eastern Azores On Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 85 Mph...140 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Gordon Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Some Additional Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...But Gordon Is Expected To Be A Hurricane When It Passes Near Or Over The Eastern Azores.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles...205 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 978 Mb...28.88 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Eastern
Azores Within The Next Few Hours...With Hurricane Conditions
Expected Overnight Tonight And Monday.

Rainfall...Gordon Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Amounts Of 3
To 6 Inches Over The Central And Eastern Azores.

Surf...Swells Generated By Gordon Will Cause Dangerous Surf And Rip Current Conditions In The Central And Eastern Azores.

Next Advisory
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Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Ast.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane Gordon Discussion Number 17
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Ast Sun Aug 19 2012

Gordon Continues To Slowly Weaken...As Deep Convection Is Eroding South Of The Center And The Overall Cloud Pattern Has Become Elongated. However...The Eye Has Still Been Apparent On Recent Infrared Imagery. The Initial Intensity Is 75 Kt Based On The
Latest Dvorak Ci-Numbers From Tafb And Sab.

Steady Weakening Is Expected To Continue Due To Cool Waters And Strong Shear...And The New Nhc Intensity Forecast Has Been Adjusted Downward In Agreement With The Latest Ships And Lgem Guidance. Model Fields And Fsu Phase Space Digrams Suggest That Gordon Will Be Post-Tropical By 36 Hours...And The Cyclone Should Then Shear Apart And Become A Remnant Low By 72 Hours. Dissipation Is Expected By 96 Hours...If Not Sooner.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 070/18. The Track Guidance Continues
To Be In Good Agreement On The Scenario Of Gordon Interacting With
A Shortwave Trough Approaching From The West-Northwest...Which
Should Induce A Bit More Of A Poleward Component Of Motion And A
Decrease In Forward Speed In The Next Day Or So. After 36 Hours... As The Low-Level Center Decouples...A Slow Eastward Drift Is Expected Through Dissipation. The New Nhc Track Forecast Is
Close To The Previous One And The New Multi-Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 19/2100z 36.1n 27.5w 75 Kt 85 Mph
12h 20/0600z 37.3n 24.9w 60 Kt 70 Mph
24h 20/1800z 38.8n 21.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 21/0600z 39.2n 19.2w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Tropical
48h 21/1800z 39.2n 18.2w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
72h 22/1800z 39.0n 17.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96h 23/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Brennan


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