DEBBY - in the Atlantic: Last Tropical Advisory

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number  18
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Wed Jun 27 2012
Debby Loses Tropical Characteristics...Now A Post-Tropical Cyclone...

Austin Tinker floats on flood waters from Tropical Storm Debby in downtown Live Oak, Fla. on Tuesday, June 26, 2012. (AP Photo/The Gainesville Sun, Matt Stamey)

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
Location...29.5n 78.3w
About 180 Mi...295 Km E Of St. Augustine Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...E Or 90 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb...29.62 Inches

Watches And Warnings
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
Satellite Data And Imagery Indicate That Debby Has Lost Tropical
Characteristics And Is Now A Post-Tropical Cyclone.

At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Poorly Defined Center Of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Was Estimated Near Latitude 29.5
North...Longitude 78.3 West.

Debby Is Moving Toward The East Near 13 Mph...20 Km/H.

A General Eastward Motion With A Turn Toward The East-Northeast And An Increase Forward Speed Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher

The Post-Tropical Cyclone Is Expected To Maintain This Intensity Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Gale-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km To The Southeast Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Rainfall...Rainfall Associated With Debby Will Continue To Diminish
Across The Florida Peninsula Today. Additional Isolated Rainfall
Amounts Of Up To One Inch Will Be Possible In Some Of The Lingering Rain Bands...Mainly Over Southern Florida.

Next Advisory
This Is The Last Public Advisory Issued By The National Hurricane
Center On This System. Additional Information On The Post-Tropical
Cyclone Can Be Found In High Seas Forecasts Issued By The National Weather Service.

Forecaster Kimberlain

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 18
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Wed Jun 27 2012

Strong Westerly Shear And Dry Air Continue To Take A Toll On Debby.

Ascat Ambiguity Vectors From A 1527 Utc Overpass Suggest That The
Low-Level Circulation Has Become Elongated To The Point That It Is
Now A Sharp Trough Axis Without A Well Defined Center.

In Addition...The System Lacks Enough Organized Deep Convection To Be Classifiable.

On This Basis...Debby Is Now Designated As A Post- Tropical Cyclone.

The Earlier Ascat Pass Had Uncontaminated Winds To 32 Kt...And Noaa Buoy 41010 Had 1-Minute Winds As High As 31 Kt. It Is Assumed That Higher Winds Could Be Occurring In The Remaining
Convection Well Removed From The Center...So Intensity Of The
System Is Estimated To Be 35 Kt.

Based Upon Recent Satellite Fixes...The Initial Motion Estimate Is
095/11...Although This Is Difficult To Determine Precisely Due To
The Poor Definition Of The Center.

Debby Should Be Steered By The Flow On The South Side Of A Deep Trough Covering The Western Atlantic...Even As This Weather System Begins To Lift Out. Once Reaching A Higher Latitude...Debby Is Expected To Feel The Influence Of The Mid-Latitude Westerly Flow And Accelerate Northeastward During The Remainder Of The Forecast Period.

Global Models Are In Good Agreement On This Scenario But Still Differ On The Timing Aspects Of The Forecast. The Gfs Is Substantially Slower Than The Ecmwf/Ukmet Since Its More Southern Initial Heading Keeps It Equatorward Of The Stronger Westerly Flow.

The New Track Forecast Is Slowed A Bit To Account For This Possibility...But Is Essentially Similar To The Previous One.

Large-Scale Models Continue To Show A Relative Decrease In The Shear Over Debby As It Traverses The Central Atlantic Over The Next Day Or Two.

Although An Abundance Of Very Dry And Stable Air Over This Region And Decreasing Sea Surface Temperatures Could Be Factors That Prevent Debby From Regenerating As A Tropical Cyclone...Global
Models Continue To Indicate This To Be A Possibility.

The Official Nhc Forecast Carries Debby As A Post- Tropical Cyclone Throughout The Forecast Period...Though Debby Could Reacquire Tropical Characteristics At Some Point.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/2100z 29.5n 78.3w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
12h 28/0600z 29.4n 76.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
24h 28/1800z 29.7n 73.8w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
36h 29/0600z 30.7n 71.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
48h 29/1800z 32.1n 68.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
72h 30/1800z 35.7n 64.2w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical
96h 01/1800z 40.0n 59.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Tropical
120h 02/1800z 46.0n 48.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Tropical

Forecaster Kimberlain

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