At 500 am ast...0900 utc...the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
Located near latitude 39.0 north...longitude 65.4 west. Bertha is
Moving toward the northeast near 28 mph...44 km/h...and this
General motion is expected to continue through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
Gusts. Slow weakening is forecast in the next day or so...and
Bertha is expected to become a post-tropical or extra tropical
Cyclone by tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220
Km...mainly to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Deep convection continues to pulse downshear of the center of
Bertha, as the tropical cyclone is situated in a favorable region
for forced ascent in the equatorward entrance region of an upper-
level jet streak. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the
Dvorak classification from TAFB and an earlier ASCAT pass that
showed some 40-45 kt winds east of the center. As Bertha becomes
embedded in the jet, the vertical shear will increase in the next 12
to 24 hours. This should result in the low-level circulation
decoupling from the convection while the cyclone becomes embedded in
a baroclinic zone. Bertha should be post-tropical by 24 hours, and
then gradually decay as an extratropical cyclone. Bertha is
expected to be absorbed by day 5, although this could occur sooner.
The latest satellite fixes indicate an initial motion of 055/24.
Bertha is well embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough, and will continue moving northeastward over the
north Atlantic for the next day or so before turning eastward by 72
hours. The new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one,
and is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction