Tropical Storm Bertha Closing in on Barbados

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Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 2
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Fri Aug 01 2014

Bertha Continues Toward The Lesser Antilles And The Northeastern Caribbean Sea...
Tropical Storm Warnings Issued For Puerto Rico And Adjacent Islands...

Summary Of 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...Information
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Location...13.0n 57.0w
About 170 Mi...270 Km E Of Barbados
About 295 Mi...470 Km Ese Of Martinique
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...WNW Or 290 Degrees At 20 Mph...31 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb...29.77 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

A Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued For Puerto Rico... Vieques... Culebra And The U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Government Of Antigua And Barbuda Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning For The British Virgin Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning May Be Required For Martinique Later Today.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* St. Vincent And The Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within The Next 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere Across The Northeastern Caribbean Sea And Hispaniola Should Monitor The Progress Of This System.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States... Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Am Ast...0900 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Estimated Near Latitude 13.0 North...Longitude 57.0 West.

Bertha Is Moving West-Northwest Near 20 Mph...31 Km/H... And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Couple Of Days.

On The Forecast Track...Bertha Is Expected To Pass Near Or North Of Barbados This Afternoon And Move Through The Central Lesser Antilles Tonight...And Into The Northeastern Caribbean On Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

No Significant Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 45 Miles...75 Km From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Wind...
Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To First Reach The Warning Area By Midday Today...Making Outside Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area In Puerto Rico And The Virgin Islands On Saturday.

Rainfall...
Bertha Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Amounts Up To 6 Inches Across Portions Of The Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...And The Virgin Islands Through
Saturday Night.

Next Advisory
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Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Am Ast.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Am Ast.

Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 2
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Ast Fri Aug 01 2014

Bertha Is A Sheared Tropical Cyclone With The Center Located On The Western Edge Of The Deep Convection As Indicated By Satellite. The Low-Level Circulation Continues To Be Vigorous, But Given The Current Westerly Shear The Outflow Is Very Limited.

There Are No Reasons To Change The Initial Intensity Which Is Kept At 40 Knots.

Another Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Will Investigate Bertha In The Next Several Hours.

The Current Shear Environment Is Not Particularly Favorable For Strengthening, But There Are Some Indications By The Global Models That The Shear Could Decrease Some As Bertha Moves Across The
Northeastern Caribbean Sea.

This Should Allow Some Slight Intensification During The Next 24 To 36 Hours.

Once Bertha's Circulation Moves Away From Hispaniola Beyond 48 Hours, There Is An Opportunity For Additional Strengthening If The Shear Becomes Lighter As Suggested By Global And Statistical Models.

At This Time, The Nhc Forecast Keeps Bertha With 45-Knot Winds Over The Western Atlantic Until It Becomes More Certain That The Shear Could Subside.

Bertha Continues Racing Toward The West-Northwest Or 290 Degrees At 17 Knots. The Cyclone Is Being Steered By The Flow Around The Atlantic Subtropical Ridge Which Is Forecast To Persist.

Once In The Western Atlantic Near The Eastern Bahamas, Bertha Will Be Steered By The Southerly Flow Between The Subtropical High And A Mid-Level Trough Over The Eastern United States.

This Pattern Will Force Bertha To Turn Northward With A Decrease In Forward Speed And To Eventually Recurve Northeastward Over The Atlantic.

The Confidence In The Track Forecast, Primarily In The Next 2 To 3 Days, Is High Since Most The Guidance Is Tightly Clustered.

The Confidence Decreases After 3 Days When The Guidance Becomes Divergent. The Track Envelope, However, Brings Bertha Northward And Then Northeastward Over The Atlantic, And The Nhc Forecast Follows Closely The Multi-Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 01/0900z 13.0n 57.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 01/1800z 14.0n 59.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph
24h 02/0600z 15.5n 63.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
36h 02/1800z 17.2n 66.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph
48h 03/0600z 19.5n 68.8w 45 Kt 50 Mph
72h 04/0600z 24.5n 73.5w 45 Kt 50 Mph
96h 05/0600z 29.0n 74.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph
120h 06/0600z 35.0n 67.5w 45 Kt 50 Mph

Forecaster Avila


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