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Hurricane Ingrid About 12 Hours From Landfall in Mexico

Hurricane Ingrid Advisory Number 14
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 15 2013

Summary Of 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...22.7n 96.3w
About 110 Mi...175 Km Ene Of Tampico Mexico
About 120 Mi...195 Km Se Of La Pesca Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 290 Degrees At 6 Mph...9 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...990 Mb...29.23 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Cabo Rojo To La Pesca

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Bahia Algodones

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Rio San Fernando
* South Of Cabo Rojo To Tuxpan

Preparations To Protect Life And Property In The Hurricane Warning
Area Should Be Rushed To Completion.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Ingrid Was
Located Near Latitude 22.7 North...Longitude 96.3 West.

Ingrid Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H.

A Turn Toward The West Is Expected Tonight. On The Forecast Track... The Center Of Ingrid Should Be Very Near The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area Monday Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected This Evening.

However...Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible Early Monday
Before The Center Reaches The Coast. Weakening Will Begin Once
Ingrid Moves Over Land.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Rainfall...Ingrid Is Expected To Produce 10 To 15 Inches Of Rain Over A Large Part Of Eastern Mexico...With Isolated Amounts Of 25 Inches Possible...Especially In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain. These Rains Are Likely To Result In Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Wind...Hurricane Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Hurricane
Warning Area Early Monday...With Tropical Storm Conditions Expected
By Tonight.

Storm Surge...A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As Much As 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center Of Ingrid Makes Landfall. Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Destructive Waves.

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Hurricane Ingrid Discussion Number 14
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 15 2013

Visible Satellite Images And Dropsonde Data From A Noaa G-Iv
Mission Indicate That The Center Of Ingrid Remains Near The Western Edge Of The Deep Convection Due To Moderate Westerly Shear.

Although Ingrid Does Not Resemble A Classic Hurricane In Satellite
Pictures...The Initial Intensity Remains 65 Kt Based On Dvorak
Current Intensity Numbers.

A Couple Of Reconnaissance Planes...One From The Air Force Reserve...And The Other A Noaa P-3 Research Mission...Should Provide A Better Assessment Of The Strength And Size Of Ingrid This Evening.

Moderate Westerly Shear Is Forecast To Continue For Another 12 Hours Or So...And Decrease About The Time Of Landfall.

Therefore...Little Change In Strength Is Forecast
Before Landfall...Although Ingrid Could Be Slightly Stronger
Between The 12-Hour Forecast Point And Landfall. The Cyclone Should Weaken Rapidly Once It Is Inland Over Mexico.

Ingrid Is Moving West-Northwestward At About 5 Kt.

The Track Forecast Philosophy Remains Unchanged From The Previous Advisory.

Ingrid Should Turn Westward To The South Of A Mid-Level Ridge Over
Texas Tonight...Then Bend West-Southwestward After Landfall.

There Is Still Some Spread In The Guidance On The Timing Of Landfall...And The Nhc Forecast Generally Splits These Differences And Is Close To The Speed Of The Model Consensus.

In Addition To The Wind And Storm Surge Threats...Torrential Rains
From Both Ingrid And Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Manuel Are
Expected Over Eastern And Central Mexico During The Next Couple
Of Days. These Rains Will Likely Cause Life-Threatening Flooding And Mud Slides.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 15/2100z 22.7n 96.3w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 16/0600z 23.0n 97.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
24h 16/1800z 23.0n 98.0w 60 Kt 70 Mph...Inland
36h 17/0600z 22.6n 99.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
48h 17/1800z 22.2n 100.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 18/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Brown


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