Bertha Now A Hurricane...Still No Threat to Land

...Bertha Becomes The Second Hurricane Of The 2014 Atlantic
Season...

Summary Of 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...Information
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Location...27.6n 73.6w
About 230 Mi...370 Km Ene Of Great Abaco Island
Maximum Sustained Winds...80 Mph...130 Km/H
Present Movement...N Or 360 Degrees At 17 Mph...28 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...998 Mb...29.47 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 27.6 North...Longitude 73.6 West.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The North Near 17 Mph...28 Km/H...And A Turn Toward The North-Northeast And Northeast With Increasing Forward Speed Is Forecast Over The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...Bertha Will Continue To Move Away From The Bahamas Today And Pass About Midway Between The U.S. East Coast And Bermuda On Tuesday.

Reports From Noaa And Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 80 Mph...130 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

A Weakening Trend Is Expected To Begin By Late Tuesday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160 Miles...260 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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None.

Next Advisory
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Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Bertha Discussion Number 15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Edt Mon Aug 04 2014

In Spite Of Its Unimpressive Appearance On Satellite Imagery, With Scant Evidence Of Banding Features And Relatively Disorganized Deep Convection, Aerial Reconnaissance Data Indicate That Bertha Has Intensified Into A Hurricane.

Flight-Level, Dropsonde, And Sfmr Winds From Air Force And Noaa Hurricane Hunter Planes Support An Intensity Of 70 Kt For This Advisory.

Bertha Does Have Well-Defined Anticyclonic Upper-Level Outflow Over The Eastern And Southern Portions Of The Circulation. Recent Infrared Imagery Shows Warming Cloud Tops, So The Intensity Is Probably Leveling Off.

Dynamical Guidance Predicts A Very Large Increase In Shear Beginning In 24-36 Hours, And A Weakening Trend Is Forecast To Begin Around That Time.

In About 72 Hours, The Global Models Show The Cyclone Interacting With A Baroclinic Zone In The Vicinity Of Newfoundland, So The Nhc Forecast Shows Bertha Becoming Extratropical By That Time.

Center Fixes From The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That The Motion Is Now 360/15 Kt. The Track Forecast Remains Relatively Straightforward.

Over The Next Couple Of Days, Bertha Should Turn Toward The Northeast And Accelerate In The Flow Between A Mid-Tropospheric Anticyclone Over The Southwestern Atlantic And A Broad Trough Moving Off The United States East Coast.

Later In The Forecast Period, The Cyclone Should Continue Moving Quickly To The Northeast Or East-Northeast Within The Mid-Latitude Westerlies. The Official Forecast Track Is Not Much Different From The Previous One, And Close To The Dynamical Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 04/1500z 27.6n 73.6w 70 Kt 80 Mph
12h 05/0000z 30.0n 73.4w 70 Kt 80 Mph
24h 05/1200z 33.4n 72.1w 70 Kt 80 Mph
36h 06/0000z 36.3n 69.3w 65 Kt 75 Mph
48h 06/1200z 39.0n 65.0w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 07/1200z 45.0n 55.0w 55 Kt 65 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 08/1200z 49.0n 45.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 09/1200z 49.0n 33.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Pasch


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