The Medium Range Period Continues To Feature A Stable And Well
Agreed Upon Large Scale Pattern Featuring An Ern Pac Mean Ridge
And Positively Tilted Noam Mean Trof. There Is Lower Confidence
With Individual Shrtwvs Progressing Around The Top Of The Ern Pac
Ridge And Continuing Into The Downstream Mean Trof... Though
Enough Clustering Exists To Identify Three Primary Features Likely
To Be Of Interest Thru Next Tue.
The Leading System Will Deepen As It Tracks From The Plains/Ms
Valley Into Ern Canada During Days 3-5 Sun-Tue. As Was The Case
24 Hrs Ago The Ecmwf Leans Slightly On The Faster Side Of The
Spread While The Ukmet Is On The Slower Side. The Gfs Has Trended Faster Over The Past Day. The Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means Have Been Fairly Steady In Depicting An Intermediate Soln And Are Certainly Worth Some Weighting In The Fcst Given Current Spread And Model Variability Over Recent Days. Multi-Day Trends Lean A Little Faster As A Whole So Partial Account Is Given To The 00z Gfs/Ecmwf.
Upstream Nern Pac Energy Should Amplify Into The Conus Around
Early Next Week. Initially The Only Well Defined Sfc Reflection
With This Feature Should Be Low Pressure Tracking Along The
Us-Canadian Border. Depending On Evolution Of The Flow Over And
Downstream From The West There May Be Potential For The Ejecting
Shrtwv To Support A Sfc Wave Such As Indicated In The 00z Gfs Or
In Slower Fashion By The Two Ecmwf Runs Before The Latest 00z
Version. For Now Prefer To Lean More Toward The Higher Sfc
Pressures Fcst By The 00z Ecmwf And Latest Ensemble Means Since
The Positively Tilted Nature Of The Mean Trof May Make It Difficult To Support A Wave To The Extent Of The 00z Gfs. Note That The 00z Cmc Ejects A Decent Shrtwv But Is Still Fairly Suppressed With Its Sfc Wave.
The Final Shrtwv Trof Is Currently Expected To Arrive Over The West/ Plains By Days 6-7 Wed-Thu. Guidance Consensus And
Teleconnections Relative To The Ern Pac Ridge Favoring The Agreed
Upon Positively Tilted Mean Trof Suggest The 00z Gfs May Not Be
Sufficiently Amplified With The Swrn Part Of The Trof. While The 00z Ecmwf Amplifies Wrn Flow A Little More Than The Guidance Avg By Day 7 Thu... Its Soln Compares More Favorably To The Ensemble
Means In Principle.
The Days 3-5 Sun-Tue Fcst Starts With A Nearly Even Blend Among
The 00z Gfs/Ecmwf And Gefs/12z Ecmwf Means To Yield The Best
Model/Ensemble Compromise For The System Tracking Thru The Grtlks And Upstream Sfc Low Tracking Along The Us-Canadian Border.
For Days 6-7 Wed-Thu Somewhat Higher Confidence In The 00z Ecmwf Versus The Gfs Favors Maintaining A Partial Ecmwf Component In A Blend With The Gefs/12z Ecmwf Means.
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