Tropical Storm Bertha Stronger...But Still Stays at Sea

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...Bertha Quickly Strengthens As It Moves Away From The Bahamas...

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
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Location...24.9n 73.2w
About 190 Mi...305 Km E Of Eleuthera Island
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...100 Km/H
Present Movement...Nnw Or 335 Degrees At 17 Mph...28 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb...29.74 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 24.9 North...Longitude 73.2 West.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The North-Northwest Near 17 Mph...28 Km/H...And A Gradual Turn Toward The North And Then The North-Northeast Is Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...Bertha Will Be Passing East Of The Central And Northwestern Bahamas Tonight.

Data From A Noaa And U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 65 Mph... 100 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Additional Strengthening Is Expected During The Next 48 Hours...And Bertha Is Forecast To Become A Hurricane On Monday Or Monday Night.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160 Miles... 260 Km... Primarily To The East Of The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Rainfall...
Bertha Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Amounts Of Up To 5 Inches Across The Turks And Caicos Through Monday.

Next Advisory
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Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 03 2014

Recent Satellite And Aircraft Reconnaissance Data Indicate That The Circulation Of Bertha Has Become Much Better Defined This Evening. The Tropical Cyclone Has Also Quickly Strengthened As Convection Has Increased And Become Organized In A Band Around The Eastern Portion Of The Circulation. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Has Measured Peak Believable Sfmr Winds Of Around 55 Kt. Although The Flight-Level Winds Would Support A Little Lower Initial Intensity, A Recent Dropsonde Measured Winds In The Lowest 150 Meters That Also Supports An Initial Wind Speed Of 55 Kt. The Aircraft Data Also Indicate That The Minimum Pressure Has Fallen To Around 1007 Mb.

The Strong Northwesterly Vertical Wind Shear That Has Been Affecting Bertha Is Forecast To Decrease Further During The Next 24 Hours. This Should Allow For Additional Strengthening, And The Updated Nhc Intensity Forecast Calls For Bertha To Become A Hurricane In A Day Or So.

In 36 To 48 Hours, Strong West-Southwesterly Upper-Level Winds Are Forecast To Cause A Significant Increase In Vertical Shear. The Shear, Along With Decreasing Sea Surface Temperatures, Should Cause Some Weakening Before Bertha Becomes An Extratropical Low Over The North Atlantic In Three To Four Days.

Bertha Is Moving North-Northwest At 15 Kt. The Cyclone Should Turn Northward And Then North-Northeastward During The Next Day Or So While It Moves Between A Subtropical High To Its East And A Mid- To Upper-Level Trough Over The Eastern United States.

In A Couple Of Days, Bertha Is Expected To Accelerate Northeastward And Then Turn East-Northeastward When It Moves Into The Mid-Latitude Westerlies. The Model Guidance Is Generally In Good Agreement On This Scenario Through 72 Hours, And The New Nhc Track Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory During That Time.

There Is Increasing Spread In The Track Guidance After Three Days With The Ecmwf And Ukmet Models Predicting A Much Faster Motion Over The North Atlantic Than The Latest Gfs. The Four- And Five-Day Forecast Positions Are Close To The Model Consensus And Guidance Provided By The Noaa Ocean Prediction Center.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 04/0300z 24.9n 73.2w 55 Kt 65 Mph
12h 04/1200z 27.3n 73.7w 60 Kt 70 Mph
24h 05/0000z 30.8n 73.4w 65 Kt 75 Mph
36h 05/1200z 34.1n 72.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
48h 06/0000z 36.9n 69.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
72h 07/0000z 42.2n 59.5w 60 Kt 70 Mph
96h 08/0000z 47.5n 50.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 09/0000z 49.5n 40.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Brown


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