Arthur Losing Strength Over Atlantic

...Center Of Arthur To Pass Southeast Of Cape Cod Early Tonight...
...All Warnings In North Carolina Discontinued...

Credit: CBS

Hurricane Arthur Advisory Number 15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Edt Fri Jul 04 2014

...Center Of Arthur Expected To Pass Southeast Of Cape Cod Early
...All Warnings In North Carolina Discontinued...

Summary Of 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...Information
Location...37.7n 73.4w
About 100 Mi...165 Km Ese Of Ocean City Maryland
About 330 Mi...530 Km Sw Of Chatham Massachusetts
Maximum Sustained Winds...90 Mph...150 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 40 Degrees At 24 Mph...39 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...976 Mb...28.82 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...

Environment Canada Has Replaced All Remaining Tropical Storm
Watches With A Tropical Storm Warning.

All Hurricane Warnings Have Been Discontinued. The Tropical Storm
Warning For Western Albemarle Sound Has Also Been Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The North Carolina/Virginia Border To Cape Charles Light
Virginia...Including The Mouth Of The Chesapeake Bay
* Nantucket
* Cape Cod From Provincetown To Woods Hole
* Nova Scotia Including Cape Breton Island
* Prince Edward Island
* New Brunswick From The U. S./Canada Border To Grand-Anse

Interests Elsewhere In Coastal Portions Of New England And
Newfoundland Should Monitor The Progress Of Arthur.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Arthur Was
Located Near Latitude 37.7 North...Longitude 73.4 West.

Arthur Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 24 Mph...39 Km/H...And This Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some Increase In Forward Speed During The Next Day Or So.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Arthur Will Pass Well Offshore Of The Mid-Atlantic Coast Of The United States This Afternoon...Pass Southeast Of New England Tonight...And Be Near Or Over Western Nova Scotia Early Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...150 Km/H...With Higher

Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...And Arthur Is Expected To Become A Post-Tropical Cyclone On Saturday Morning.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 40 Miles...65 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles...205 Km.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Estimated From Data From An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is 976 Mb...28.82 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue In Portions Of The Warning Area In Virginia Through Early Afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Warning Area In New England This Evening. Tropical Storm Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Warning Area In Canada Tonight And Spread Northward On Saturday.

Storm Surge...
Coastal Flooding Is Possible Along Cape Cod Tonight. Elevated Water Levels In Portions Of North Carolina And Virginia Will Gradually Subside This Afternoon. For Information Specific To Your Area... Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Expected From Extreme Eastern Rhode Island Through Eastern Massachusetts And Into
Coastal Maine...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 6 Inches Possible Over Downeast Maine.

Swells Generated By Arthur Are Affecting Areas Along The Coast Of North Carolina...The Mid-Atlantic...And Northeast Coasts Of The United States. Swells Will Begin Affecting Portions Of Southeastern Canada Tonight. These Swell Are Expected To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Currents. For More Information... Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.


Hurricane Arthur Discussion Number 15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Edt Fri Jul 04 2014

The Eye Of Arthur Remains Evident In Geostationary Satellite Imagery
Although The Cloud Tops Surrounding The Eye Have Warmed This
Morning. The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Has
Measured 94-Kt 700 Mb Flight-Level Winds In The Southeastern
Quadrant, But It Appears That These Winds Are Not Effectively Mixing
Down To The Surface, As Peak Surface Winds Have Been 68 Kt.

Using A Blend Of The These Data, The Initial Intensity Has Been
Reduced To 80 Kt.

Arthur Will Be Moving Over Cooler Water And The Shear Will Be Significantly Increasing Through Tonight, Which Should Cause Gradual Weakening. The Hurricane Will Also Interact With A Deep-Layer Trough And Associated Cold Front That Will Be Moving Off
The United States East Coast Later Today. This Should Cause The
Hurricane To Complete Transition Into An Extratropical Cyclone In
About 24 Hours. After That Time, Continued Weakening Is Expected
While The Post-Tropical Cyclone Moves Over The North Atlantic.

Arthur Is Moving Northeastward With An Initial Motion Of 040/21 Kt.

The Hurricane Should Continue Moving Northeastward During The Next 24 To 36 Hours Ahead Of The Aforementioned Deep-Layer Trough.

The Center Of The Cyclone Is Forecast To Move Over Nova Scotia On
Saturday And Track Models Are In Good Agreement On This Portion Of
The Forecast.

The Track Guidance Become Very Divergent After 48 Hours, With The Ecmwf Taking The Cyclone Northward And Northwestward While The Gfs Shows An East-Northeastward Motion Near Newfoundland. Out Of Continuity For The Previous Forecasts, The Nhc Track Continues To Follow The Eastward Scenario Shown By The Gfs And Gfs
Ensemble Mean, But It Now Shows A Somewhat Slower Motion By Day 5. It Is Possible That This Portion Of The Track Will Need To Be
Adjusted In Future Forecasts.

Hourly Position Updates And Two-Hourly Intermediate Advisories Have Been Discontinued.

Three-Hourly Intermediate Advisories Will Continue As Long As Coastal Warnings Remain In Effect.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 04/1500z 37.7n 73.4w 80 Kt 90 Mph
12h 05/0000z 40.2n 70.1w 75 Kt 85 Mph
24h 05/1200z 44.0n 66.1w 60 Kt 70 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
36h 06/0000z 46.1n 63.2w 55 Kt 65 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
48h 06/1200z 48.0n 59.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
72h 07/1200z 55.0n 52.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 08/1200z 59.0n 46.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 09/1200z 62.0n 35.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Brown

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