The US housing market will decline next year, resulting in some job losses and a tap on the brakes of the nation's economy, but probably not to the point of recession.
So says the Anderson Forecast, the quarterly look-ahead from UCLA. Director Edward Leamer says the experts expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or next, but the cooldown is expected to be spread over several years.
Housing starts in October were down about five-and-a-half percent from September. New home sales have also declined recently. Home mortgage applications have been trending downward, while mortgage interest rates have been rising for three months.
In some regions, homes are remaining unsold longer and housing construction is outpacing population growth. Eight of the last ten recessions were started by housing market slowdowns.