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Tropical Update Friday Morning May 25

By: National Hurricane Center with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
425 Am Edt Fri May 25 2012
For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Located Near The Northwestern Bahamas Is Producing An Extensive Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms Over The Bahamas And Cuba.

While The Organization Of This System Has Not Improved Over The Past Few Hours...Environmental Conditions Are Expected To Become More Conducive For The Formation Of A Subtropical Or Tropical Cyclone By Saturday Or Sunday.

The Low Should Move Toward The Northeast At About 15 Mph During The Next Day Or So...Followed By A Gradual Turn Back Toward The West On Saturday.

This System Has A High Chance...70 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Or Subtropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours.

Locally Heavy Rainfall...Flooding...And Gusty Winds Are Possible
Today Over Portions Of The Northwestern And Central Bahamas...As
Well As Central Cuba.

Interests Along The Southeastern United States Coast Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System Over The Memorial Day Weekend.

Another Special Tropical Weather Outlook For This System Will Be Issued Later Today.

Elsewhere...Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

Forecaster Landsea/Brennan

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Oscar Fann's remarks follow...

Not much change in the short term forecast thinking since yesterday.

However, the trend in the data and forecast guidance wants to bring the weakening tropical low inland to at least the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida area on Sunday.

Such a trend means not too much wind but beneficial - if not heavy - rainfall from south central Georgia (Valdosta) eastward.

This will give the WTVY-TV viewing area chances for rain as early as late Sunday - but the better rain chances are east of Dothan and increase the farther east you go from Dothan (and lesser rain chances west of Dothan).

From Dothan to Valdosta scattered showers would be a good description for late Sunday afternoon. Shower chances should increase Sunday night through Monday.

Severe weather potential is very low for our area from this forecast situation.

The weakening trend of a tropical low as it moves farher inland is a given, but exactly where the low moves and when is still not certain.

There is a lesser chance the low moves a little farther west or south of Valdosta, but not likely as far west as Dothan.

An approaching trough from the west by Tuesday is expected to 'kick' what's left of the low back to the northeast and out to sea or just off the eastern seaboard of the US.

The area beaches should see little impact through midday Sunday with an increase in high clouds starting around midday Sunday. Rain chances would enter the forecast late Sunday and would be highest the farthest east (east of Apalachicola into the Big Bend area of Florida) and lowest the farther west up the coast toward Destin / Ft. Walton Beach. For now along the coast, only Monday may have more clouds than sun, but it still may be partly to mostly sunny for many coastal sites. Always check local beach conditions on a daily basis and following the advice of local lifeguards and officials.

More updates throughout the day from Connor this morning and noon, then Rob later this afternoon and evening.

I'll update this website late today and have more over the weekend on both the web and WTVY-TV.

Oscar


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