Special Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
255 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2012
For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...
A Broad Area Of Low Pressure...Centered About 275 Miles Southeast Of The Coast Of The Carolinas...Is Producing Winds To Gale Force
Mainly To The Northeast And Southeast Of The Center.
The Low Has Become A Little Better Defined This Afternoon...Although The Associated Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Remains Poorly Organized Due To Strong Upper-Level Winds.
Environmental Conditions Are Expected To Become More Conducive For Development On Saturday Or Sunday...And This System Has A High Chance...80 Percent...Of Becoming A Tropical Or Subtropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours.
Little Motion Is Expected Today...But A West-Southwestward Or Southwestward Motion Should Begin Tomorrow And Continue Through Sunday.
Coastal Interests From The Carolinas Southward Through Northeastern Florida Should Monitor The Progress Of This System Over The Memorial Day Weekend.
In Addition...Locally Heavy Rainfall...Flooding...And Gusty Winds Will Continue Today Over Portions Of Central Cuba And The Bahamas.
Another Special Tropical Weather Outlook Will Be Issued Tomorrow...Or Earlier If Necessary.
Elsewhere...Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.
Oscar Fann's remarks follow...
So far. the area of disturbed tropical weather is generally following forecast expectations. One possible deviation is that the current location is a little farther out to sea than anticipated.
Still too early to consider any signficant changes in the forecast for this disturbance. Thus, the remarks from our 5 am update this morning continue to hold.
For now, the tropical or hybrid low is still expected to strengthen somewhat on Saturday - then weaken as it moves ashore near the southeastern Georgia coast on Sunday.
Again, rain chances remain substantial from south central Georgia (Valdosta) EASTWARD but less so west of Valdosta. Rain chances will increase across the WTVY-TV viewing area later in the day on Sunday and through Monday but would be relatively small.
For now, our rain chances late Sunday through Monday would be 30 to 40% (higher chances to the east of Dothan, lower chances to the west of Dothan) in the form of popup tropical showers. Thunderstorms would occur in areas affected by strong daytime heating and / or the sea breeze moving inland from the coast.
The severe threat from this system remains very low as winds would not be a factor from the weakening tropical low (but local thunderstorms would still produce gusty winds).
Again, as pointed out earlier this morning, the weather for area beaches looks unaffected through Saturday. High clouds increase from east to west on Sunday, but probably still partly to mostly sunny west of Apalachicola. By Monday rain chances do show up, but the higher rain chances would be east of the Apalachicola River.
More updates by early Saturday morning to this website as well as television weather updates tonight through the weekend.