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Tropical Storm DEBBY Update Late Afternoon Jun 26| Makes Landfall..Weaker

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...29.5n 83.4w
About 35 Mi...55 Km Nnw Of Cedar Key Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...Ene Or 70 Degrees At 6 Mph...9 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...995 Mb...29.38 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Warning In The Florida Panhandle And Florida Big
Bend From Mexico Beach To West Of Steinhatchee Has Been
Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Florida Gulf Coast From Steinhatchee To Englewood

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast
Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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National Weather Service Doppler Radar Data Indicate That Debby Has Made Landfall Near Steinhatchee Florida.

At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located On The Coast Near Latitude 29.5 North...Longitude 83.4 West.

Debby Is Moving Toward The East-Northeast Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H.

Debby Has Been Moving Slightly Faster Toward The East-Northeast
Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H.

An Eastward Or East-Northeastward Motion With Some Further Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Debby Is Expected To Weaken To A Tropical Depression Tonight.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280
Km...Mainly To The Southeast Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 995 Mb...29.38 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue Over Portions Of The Florida Gulf Coast Through This Evening.

Storm Surge...Even Though Debby Continues To Slowly Weaken... Coastal Flooding Will Continue During The Next Day Or Two Due To Persistent Onshore Winds.

The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters During The Next High Tide This Evening...With Levels Similar To Those That Occurred On Monday.

The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground:

Apalachee Bay And The Nature Coast...2 To 4 Ft
South Of The Nature Coast Including Tampa Bay...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Additional Rain
Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches Over Northern Florida And Extreme
Southeastern Georgia Through Wednesday Evening...With Isolated
Rainfall Totals As High As 10 Inches. Isolated Storm Total Amounts
Of 25 Inches Are Possible In Northern Florida.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Across The Florida
Peninsula Tonight.

Next Advisory
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Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 14
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Tue Jun 26 2012

An Air Force Mission That Ended Early This Afternoon Measured
Bias-Corrected Sfmr Winds Just Below Tropical Storm Strength.

Based On Those Data...It Is Assumed That There Are Still A Few Spots Of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Remaining In Bands To The Southeast Of The Center.

In The Face Of Strong Westerly Vertical Wind Shear...Debby Is Generating Only Limited Deep Convection To The Northeast Of The Center Over Northern Florida...And Has Less Than A Fully Tropical Appearance.

The Cyclone Is Also Being Overtaken By A Large Region Of Dry Air Over The Southern United States And Gulf Of Mexico.

The Passage Of Debby Over Land...In Addition To The Negative Factors Cited Above...Will Likely Cause Debby To Weaken To A Depression Within 12 Hours.

After The Center Emerges Over The Western Atlantic...Substantially Lower Shear And Warmer Waters Favor Some Re-Intensification Of The Cyclone Later In The Forecast Period.

The New Nhc Forecast Is Close To The Ships/Lgem Guidance And Is Basically An Update Of The Previous One.

As Advertised By Dynamical Models...Debby Is Moving Faster Toward
The East-Northeast And The Initial Motion Estimate Is 070/05.

The Increase In Forward Speed Is Related To An Increasing Westerly Mid-To Upper-Tropospheric Flow Associated With An Unusually Deep Longwave Trough Digging Offshore The Atlantic Seaboard.

The Gfs Briefly Slows The Cyclone Motion In The First 12-24 Hours Of The Forecast...And Perhaps As A Result The Western Atlantic Trough Fails To Capture Debby As Strongly As Shown By The Ecmwf And Ukmet.

The New Nhc Forecast Is Faster Than The Previous One But Is Not As
Quick As The Ecmwf/Ukmet/Multi-Model Consensus...Both Because Of Continuity And Respect For The Gfs.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 26/2100z 29.5n 83.4w 35 Kt 40 Mph...On The Coast
12h 27/0600z 29.5n 82.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
24h 27/1800z 29.7n 81.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
36h 28/0600z 30.0n 79.7w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Over Water
48h 28/1800z 30.3n 77.7w 35 Kt 40 Mph
72h 29/1800z 31.4n 74.1w 35 Kt 40 Mph
96h 30/1800z 33.5n 71.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
120h 01/1800z 36.6n 66.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph

Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin


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