Tropical Depression DEBBY Update Late Evening Jun 26: Moving Southeast - For Now

Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number  15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Tue Jun 26 2012
Center Of Debby Turns Southeastward...Expected To Resume An Eastward Motion Later Tonight...

Seminole Lane street sign (nearly 7 feet above the ground) in Sopchoppy in Wakulla county, Florida Tuesday June 26, 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...29.0n 82.8w
About 20 Mi...30 Km Ese Of Cedar Key Florida
About 110 Mi...175 Km W Of Daytona Beach Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/H
Present Movement...Se Or 125 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1000 Mb...29.53 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Debby
Was Located Near Latitude 29.0 North...Longitude 82.8 West.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Southeast Near 7 Mph...11 Km/H.

A Turn Toward The East Is Expected Later Tonight...With A Motion
Toward The East-Northeast And An Increase In Forward Speed Expected On Wednesday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Debby Will Cross The Northern Florida Peninsula Tonight And Wednesday Morning...And Possibly Emerge Into The Atlantic Wednesday Afternoon Or Wednesday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast While The Center Is Over The Florida Peninsula. Slow Strengthening Is Possible After The Center Reaches The Atlantic.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Based On Surface Observations Is 1000 Mb...29.53 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Storm Surge...Even Though Debby Continues To Slowly Weaken...
The Coastal Flooding Threat Has Not Fully Diminished Due To
Persistent Onshore Winds.

The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters During The Next High Tide Wednesday Morning.

The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground...

Florida West Coast Including Tampa Bay...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast South Of
The Center In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area... Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Additional Rain
Accumulations Of 2 To 3 Inches Over Northern Florida Through
Wednesday Evening...With Isolated 5 Inch Amounts Possible. Isolated Storm Total Amounts Of 25 Inches Are Possible In Northern Florida.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Across The Florida
Peninsula Tonight.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Tue Jun 26 2012

The Center Of Debby Made Landfall In The Florida Big Bend
Region At Around 2100 Utc (4pm cdt).

Since That Time...The Center Has Turned Southeastward...Possibly Due To Interaction With A Gust Front From The Most Recent Convective Burst And A Mesoscale Vorticity Center Over Northeastern Florida.

The Circulation Has Also Become Elongated With The Central Pressure Rising To Around 1000 Mb.

The Initial Intensity Of 30 Kt Is Based On Coastal Observations And The Chance That Some Stronger Winds May Exist Over The Water.

The Initial Motion Is 125/6.

A Deep-Layer Trough Is North And Northeast Of Debby...And An Associated Surface Frontal Zone Extends From Southern Georgia East-Northeastward Into The Atlantic.

While The Large-Scale Models Forecast These Features To Weaken During The Next 72 Hr...They Agree That There Will Be Enough Westerly Steering Flow To Allow The Center To Cross Florida And Reach The Atlantic During The Next 24 Hr Or So.

The Models Diverge After That. The Nogaps And Canadian Models Show The Center Stalling Off The U. S. Coast...While The Gfs...Ukmet...Ecmwf...Gfdl...And Hwrf Move It East-Northeastward Into The Atlantic At Varying Speeds.

The Forecast Track Goes With The Latter Scenario. The New Forecast Is Adjusted South Of The Previous Track Based On The Initial Position And Motion...And Is A Bit Faster. It Should Be Noted That Additional Adjustments To The Track Forecast May Be Necessary If The Center Re-Forms While Crossing Florida.

Debby Is Currently Experiencing Moderate Vertical Wind Shear...Dry
Air Entrainment...And Land Interaction. This Combination Should
Persist Until The Center Reaches The Atlantic.

In 36-48 Hr...The Gfs...Ukmet...And Ecmwf Forecast An Upper-Level Trough To Interact With The Cyclone...Which Could Reduce The Shear And Provide Favorable Upper-Level Divergence.

However...Deep-Layer Dry Air Should Still Be Near Debby At That Time...Which Could Prevent The More Favorable Dynamics From Strengthening The System. Thus...The New Intensity Forecast Is Almost Identical To The Previous Forecast.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/0300z 29.0n 82.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph
12h 27/1200z 29.3n 81.7w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
24h 28/0000z 29.7n 80.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Over Water
36h 28/1200z 30.3n 77.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph
48h 29/0000z 30.7n 75.6w 35 Kt 40 Mph
72h 30/0000z 32.0n 72.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph
96h 01/0000z 35.0n 69.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph
120h 02/0000z 39.0n 62.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph

Forecaster Beven


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