Beryl About 30 hours From Ga / Fla Landfall - 8pm Saturday Update

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Subtropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 4a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Pm Edt Sat May 26 2012

Hurricane Hunters Find That Beryl Is A Little Stronger...

Summary Of 800 Pm Edt...0000 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...31.1n 76.9w
About 220 Mi...350 Km Se Of Charleston South Carolina
About 290 Mi...465 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...80 Km/H
Present Movement...Sw Or 235 Degrees At 6 Mph...9 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...998 Mb...29.47 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of Edisto Beach To South Santee River South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 800 Pm Edt...0000 Utc...The Center Of Subtropical Storm Beryl Was
Located Near Latitude 31.1 North...Longitude 76.9 West.

The Storm Is Moving Toward The Southwest Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Forecast To Continue Through Early Sunday.

A Turn Toward The West Is Expected Late Sunday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Beryl Will Be Near The Coast Within The Warning Area By Late Sunday.

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate
That Maximum Sustained Winds Are Now Near 50 Mph...80 Km/H... With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected During The Next Day Or Two While The Center Remains Over Water.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...145 Km
From The Center.

The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Recently Reported A Minimum Central
Pressure Of 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Coast
Within The Warning Area From Northeastern Florida To South Carolina On Sunday.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area Along The Central South Carolina Coast Late Tonight Or On Sunday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Coastal Portions Of South Carolina...Georgia...And North Florida...
1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Are Possible Along The Coast From
Northeastern Florida To North Carolina Over The Memorial Day
Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
3 To 6 Inches Along The Southeastern Coast Of The United States
From Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Beven/Kimberlain

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sat May 26 2012

A Small Area Of Thunderstorms Has Recently Developed Near
The Center Of Beryl...But The Cyclone Has Otherwise Changed Little
Throughout The Day.

Satellite Classifications Still Support Maintaining The Initial Wind Speed At 40 Kt. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Has Just Begun Its Investigation Of The System...And Will Soon Provide A Better Assessment Of Its Intensity.

The Subtropical Storm Has Slowed Down This Afternoon...And The
Latest Initial Motion Estimate Is 225/4. A General Southwestward To
West-Southwestward Heading With Some Increase In Forward Speed Is Forecast Tonight And Early Sunday...Followed By A Turn To The West Late Sunday.

This Track Will Take The Center Of Beryl Inland Over Northeastern Florida Or Southeastern Georgia Sunday Night Or Early Monday.

After Landfall...An Approaching Deep-Layer Trough Is Expected To Cause Beryl To Slow Down And Then Sharply Recurve.

The Models Remain In Fair Agreement Through Landfall...But Disagree Considerably After Landfall.

The 12z Ecmwf Has Shifted A Little To The Left Of The Previous Run But Still Shows Recurvature Very Near The Southeastern United States Coastline.

The Gfs...Gfdl...And Hwrf Models Take Beryl A Couple Hundred Miles
Inland Before Recurvature.

The Official Forecast Remains Between The Gfs And Ecmwf Models And Is Very Similar To The Previous One Through The Landfall...And Then Slightly West Of It Thereafter.

Although Beryl Lies Over The Relatively Warm Gulf Stream Waters...Dry Air And The Overall Broad Structure Of Its Wind Field Should Limit Significant Strengthening Before Landfall. At The End Of The Forecast Period Beryl Will Be Over Cooler Waters And In A Strong Wind Shear Environment...And Is Expected To Lose Any Tropical Characteristics.

The Nhc Intensity Forecast Is Very Similar To The Previous Advisory And Closely Follows The Intensity Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 26/2100z 31.5n 76.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 27/0600z 30.9n 77.8w 40 Kt 45 Mph
24h 27/1800z 30.4n 79.6w 45 Kt 50 Mph
36h 28/0600z 30.4n 81.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Inland
48h 28/1800z 30.9n 82.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 29/1800z 31.5n 82.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 30/1800z 34.0n 77.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Over Water
120h 31/1800z 38.0n 70.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Tropical

Forecaster Cangialosi/Franklin

------------------------------------------
Remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Subtle changes may be brewing in the forecast track of BERYL.

As you read in the discussion above from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) there are two camps of thought, and the NHC is leaning toward the idea of recurving BERYL earlier, which would diminish further even the relatively low rainfall we are forecasting in the WTVY-TV coverage area.

Still, there's a decent chance BERYL weakens and travels farther to the west to near Valdosta which would give us better rain chances and amounts - but still rather low rainfall amounts.

Again, from Sunday night into midweek as we stated in our previous updates, the farther east you go from Dothan, the better the rain chances (and the farther west from Dothan, lesser rain chances).

Even in our coverage area to the east (southwestern Ga. and parts of the Florida panhandle east of the Apalachicola River), rainfall amounts look to be limited to 1 to 2 inches from late Sunday into midweek.

Again, for now the severe weather potential from the effects of BERYL look to be very low, and winds would not be a concern (except those you might expect in isolated strong summer type thunderstorms).

No other changes...beach weather along the nearby coast for the holiday weekend looks to be unaffected, although more clouds with low end rain chances would be in the forecast for Monday - but the farther west you are up the coast toward Destin, Ft. Walton Beach, Navarre Beach, you should still find mostly sunny conditions.

More updates through the holiday weekend on this website as well as our regularly scheduled newscasts.

Oscar


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