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2pm edt Sunday Update: Tropical Storm Beryl About 10 Hours From Ga / Fla Landfall

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 7a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
200 Pm Edt Sun May 27 2012

Beryl Stronger...Now A Tropical Storm...

Summary Of 200 Pm Edt...1800 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...30.1n 79.9w
About 110 Mi...175 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
About 120 Mi...195 Km Se Of Brunswick Georgia
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...100 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 265 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...997 Mb...29.44 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area..Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 200 Pm Edt...1800 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Beryl
Was Located Near Latitude 30.1 North...Longitude 79.9 West.

Beryl Is Moving Toward The West Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H.

A Westward Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Move Slowly West-Northwestward And Then Turn Northward Over Portions Of Northeast Florida And Southeast Georgia On Monday And Monday Night.

Satellite Imagery Indicates That Beryl Has Strengthened And Now
Has Maximum Sustained Winds Near 65 Mph...100 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected Before Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Forecast To Weaken To A Depression On
Monday.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...
150 Km From The Center.

Noaa Buoy 41012 Located About 50 Miles...80 Km...East-Northeast Of St. Augustine Florida Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 43 Mph...69 Km/H With A Gust To 52 Mph...83 Km/H.

A Coastal Marine Automated Observing Site At St. Augustine Recently Measured A Wind Gust To 41 Mph...67 Km/H.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 997 Mb...29.44 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Be Reaching The Coast Of
Northeast Florida And Southeastern Georgia This Afternoon And
Continue Through Tonight.

Gusts To Hurricane Force Are Possible Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia Tonight.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Coastal Portions Of South Carolina...Georgia...And North Florida...
1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions...Including Rip Currents...Are
Expected Along The Coast From Northeastern Florida To North
Carolina Over The Remainder Of The Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
3 To 6 Inches Along The Southeastern Coast Of The United States
From Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
------------------------------------------

Remarks by Oscar Fann follow...

1 pm cdt Sunday update...
No significant changes in previous post, which follows -

Since Saturday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has slowly moved the inland path of BERYL farther westward through extreme southern Georgia with each update.

Currently (early Sunday afternoon), NHC has BERYL almost reaching Valdosta on Monday, then recurving and moving off to the northeast late Monday night or early Tuesday.

Thus, our forecast for the WTVY-TV area remains essentially unchanged since our first update early Friday morning.

Briefly, that means rain chances enter the forecast Sunday night - about 20% for Dothan.

From Sunday night through midweek, the farther east you go from Dothan the higher the rain chances (and west from Dothan lesser rain chances prevail).

If BERYL's path continues as expected, we will lower Dothan's rain chances to 40% for Monday & Tuesday. FOR NOW, Dothan will be fortunate to receive about a half inch of rain relating to the effects of BERYL.

Rain amounts relating to BERYL look to be rather light for the period for most of the WTVY-TV coverage area, although 1, possibly 2 inches could be possible in parts of southwest Ga. and east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle Sunday night though Wednesday.

If BERYL's direction changes, then obviously the forecast changes, but as mentioned previously, there has been little change in our forecast since early Friday.

For now, winds may gust to around 20 mph on Monday but otherwise will not be a factor, and the severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low.

Along the coast -
Beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend should remain largely unaffected through Sunday.
Monday should see an increase in clouds but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City would still have some sunshine.
Winds will increase to around 20 mph at times with possible higher gusts.
Boating / Marine Advisories might be necessary.
Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola.
As we constantly stress - ALWAYS, check with lifeguards and local officals to get the very latest beach & marine conditions BEFORE entering the Gulf waters.

More updates through the holiday weekend here on our website as well as on WTVY-TV's regularly scheduled newscasts.

Oscar


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