Tropical Storm Debby Update Late Sunday Evening Jun 24: Stationary and Ragged Looking

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
Location...28.3n 85.9w
About 110 Mi...180 Km Ssw Of Apalachicola Florida
About 200 Mi...325 Km Ese Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph...95 Km/H
Present Movement...Stationary
Minimum Central Pressure...991 Mb...29.26 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...


Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Mississippi-Alabama Border Eastward To The Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* South Of The Suwannee River To Englewood Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Later Today.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States... Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 28.3 North...Longitude 85.9 West.

Debby Has Been Nearly Stationary During The Past Several Hours.

Little Movement Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days...But This Forecast Remains Uncertain Due To Weak Steering Currents.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph...95 Km/H...With Higher

Some Gradual Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles...
325 Km...Mainly North And East Of The Center.

During The Past Hour...A Sustained Wind Of 43 Mph...69 Km/H...With A Gust To 67 Mph...107 Km/H...Was Reported At Venice Florida.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue Over Portions Of
The Northeast Gulf Coast Through Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground At The Times Of High Tide Over The Next Few Days...

Apalachee Bay To Waccasassa Bay...4 To 6 Ft
Florida West Coast South Of Waccasassa Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Coastal Alabama Eastward To Apalachee Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Southeastern Louisiana To Coastal Mississippi...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
10 To 15 Inches Over The Florida Panhandle And Northern Florida...
With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 25 Inches Possible.

Surrounding This Area...Total Rain Accumulations Of 5 To 10 Inches Are Expected Over Central Florida And Southeast Georgia...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible.

Given The Recent Heavy Rainfall And Wet Soil Conditions...These Additional Amounts Will Exacerbate The Flash Flood Threat Across Portions Of Northern Florida And Southwest Alabama.

Total Rain Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Expected Over Coastal
Alabama...Mississippi...Louisiana And South Florida...With Isolated
Maximum Amounts Of 6 Inches Possible.

Tornadoes...A Few Tornadoes Are Possible Tonight And Monday Across The Eastern Florida Panhandle...And Western And Central Portions Of The Florida Peninsula.

Next Advisory
Next Intermediate Advisory...100 Am Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...400 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 24 2012

The Appearance Of Debby In Satellite And Radar Imagery Has Degraded Significantly This Evening As A Sharp Mid-Level Dry Intrusion Has Worked Its Way Into The Center Of The Cyclone And Eroded All Of The Inner Core Deep Convection.

The Initial Intensity Is Being Held At 50 Kt For This Forecast Package Based Mainly On Continuity With The Previous Advisory And The Relatively Low Central Pressure Of 991 Mb Reported By An Air Force Reserve Recon Aircraft This Evening.

Debby Has Been Nearly Stationary Since The Last Advisory.

Both 18z And 00z Upper-Air Data Indicate Mid-Level Ridging Has Continued To Build Across The Southeastern U.S. To The North Of Debby...And This Has Likely Been The Reason For The Lack Of Any Significant Motion Over The Past Several Hours.

All Of The Nhc Model Guidance...Except For The Gfs And Gfs-Ensemble Models...Indicate This Blocking Pattern Across The Central And Eastern U.S. Should Continue As Fast-Moving Shortwave Troughs Pass Well To The North Of Debby.

The Result Should Be That The Cyclone Will Move Little During The Next Couple Of Days...And Then Only Drift Slowly Northward After That As The Ridge Over The Southeastern U.S. Gradually Breaks Down.

Although The Gfs Model Has Been Very Consistent With A Fast Northeastward Motion Across North Florida The Past Few Days...The Large Sprawling Nature Of The Cyclone And The Blocking Ridge To The North Would Suggest That The Gfs Model May Be Lifting Out Debby Too Quickly.

The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To But Slightly Left Of The
Previous Advisory Track...Mainly Due To The More Westward Initial

Debby Has Finally Consolidated All Of The Multiple Small Swirls Into
A Well-Defined Low-Level Circulation Center.

The Global Models Are Forecasting The Aforementioned Deep Dry Slot To Gradually Moisten Up Over The Next 48 Hours As Deep Moisture And Instability Currently Over The Florida Peninsula Advects Westward Into The Inner Core.

The Combination Of These Two Features May Allow For Some Slight Strengthening Before Debby Begins To Interact With Land Or Cold Upwelling Beneath The Cyclone Occurs.

The Official Intensity Forecast Is Identical To The Previous Advisory And Follows A Blend Of The Ships/Lgem Statistical Models And The
Hwrf/Gfdl Regional Models.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 25/0300z 28.3n 85.9w 50 Kt 60 Mph
12h 25/1200z 28.6n 85.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
24h 26/0000z 28.7n 85.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 26/1200z 28.8n 85.8w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 27/0000z 28.9n 85.8w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 28/0000z 29.4n 85.8w 55 Kt 65 Mph
96h 29/0000z 29.9n 85.8w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Near Coast
120h 30/0000z 30.4n 85.6w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland

Forecaster Stewart

WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
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