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Tropical Storm Debby Update Early Sunday Afternoon Jun 24

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Summary Of 100 Pm Cdt...1800 Utc...Information
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Location...28.3n 85.9w
About 200 Mi...325 Km Ese Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
About 105 Mi...170 Km Ssw Of Apalachicola Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph...95 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 40 Degrees At 5 Mph...7 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb...29.32 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Coast Of Louisiana From The Mouth Of The Pearl River Westward To Morgan City...Not Including The City Of New Orleans Or Lake Pontchartrain
* The Mississippi-Alabama Border Eastward To The Suwannee River
River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* South Of The Suwannee River To Anclote Key Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 12 To 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 100 Pm Cdt...1800 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 28.3 North...Longitude 85.9 West.

Debby Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H.

No Significant Motion Is Expected During The Next 12 To 24 Hours...And The Track Beyond That Time Is Highly Uncertain.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 60 Mph...95 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles...325 Km.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Measured By A Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Near Or Over Portions
Of The Northeast Gulf Coast And Are Expected To Reach The Remainder Of The Warning Area By Tonight...Making Outside Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Southeastern Louisiana Eastward Through Apalachee Bay...3 To 5 Ft
Florida West Coast South Of Apalachee Bay...1 To 3 Ft
Southwestern Louisiana...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Rain Accumulations Of 5 To
10 Inches Along The Immediate Gulf Coast From Southeast Louisiana To The Central West Coast Of Florida...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible.

Given The Recent Heavy Rainfall And Wet Soil Conditions...These Additional Amounts Will Exacerbate The Threat Of Flooding Across Portions Of Northern Florida And Southern Alabama.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of The
West-Central And Southwestern Florida Peninsula Today.

Next Advisory
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Next Complete Advisory...400 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Avila

WTVY-TV meteorologist Oscar Fann's remarks follow...

Early this morning DEBBY began a slow northeast movement which was expected to continue for only a short time. Needless to say, this movement has continued for about 10 hours now.

The updated track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently shows DEBBY slowing, then making the predicted but delayed turn to the west during the day Monday and making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in southeast Louisiana, near the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Nevertheless, the NHC has stated that it is not confident with any of the current track forecast guidance, so their late afternoon update should be interesting.

However, 2 factors remain important in the track forecast:
1) the slow forward speed of DEBBY shows there are WEAK steering currents, so DEBBY is not on a course that allows forecasters to display confidence in her future track, and
2) in such a situation, forecasters also are leery of a projected turn UNTIL DEBBY either slows or becomes stationary.

The projected turn to the west has been delayed from this morning to early Monday afternoon - and even then the new course is west, then west-northwest to Louisiana, not Texas.

BUT, should DEBBY continue her SLOW BUT STEADY northeast motion, THEN strong consideration has to be given to DEBBY continuing that track THROUGH the Florida PENINSULA and away from the Florida panhandle.

Meanwhile, DEBBY has intensified slightly and tropical storm force winds are expected to continue - FOR NOW, mainly east of Panama City into Apalachee Bay well into Monday, but ESPECIALLY for Port St Joe, St George Island, Apalachicola, Carabelle, Dog Island, Turkey Point and Alligator Point areas, where the highest winds, heaviest rains, power outages and other possible damage will be likely.


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