Tropical Storm DEBBY Update Early Afternoon Jun 26: Close to Cedar Key

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number  13a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
200 Pm Edt Tue Jun 26 2012
Debby Moving Faster Toward The East-Northeast...Flooding Threat Across Northern Florida And Southern Georgia Is The Main Concern...

One of the many flooded and closed areas in Wakulla county...

Summary Of 200 Pm Edt...1800 Utc...Information
Location...29.3n 83.6w
About 35 Mi...55 Km Wnw Of Cedar Key Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...Ene Or 70 Degrees At 6 Mph...10 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...995 Mb...29.38 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...


Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Florida Gulf Coast From Mexico Beach To Englewood

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 200 Pm Edt...1800 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 29.3 North...Longitude 83.6 West.

Satellite Images And Reports From An Air Force Plane Indicate That Debby Is Now Moving Faster Toward The East-Northeast Near 6 Mph...10 Km/H.

An Eastward Or East-Northeastward Motion With Some Further Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Debby Is Expected To Weaken To A Tropical Depression Over The Next Day Or So.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205 Miles...335
Km...Mainly To The Southeast Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 995 Mb...29.38 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue Over Portions Of
The Florida Gulf Coast Today.

Storm Surge...Even Though Debby Continues To Slowly Weaken... Coastal Flooding Will Continue During The Next Day Or Two Due To Persistent Onshore Winds.

The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters During The Next High Tide Later Today. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground...

Apalachee Bay And The Nature Coast...2 To 4 Ft
South Of The Nature Coast Including Tampa Bay...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Additional Rain
Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches Over Northern Florida And Extreme
Southeastern Georgia During The Next Couple Of Days.

Isolated Storm Total Amounts Of 25 Inches Are Possible In Northern Florida.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Across The Florida
Peninsula Today.

Next Advisory
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Edt Tue Jun 26 2012

Deep Convection Has Become Sheared Away From The Center Of Debby Again...With The Nearest Shower Activity Over Northern Florida.

An Amplifying Trough Over The Northeastern States Is Responsible For An Increase In Westerly Shear To 20-25 Kt...Well Predicted Earlier
By Dynamical Models. The Cloud Lines In The Cyclone Core Are Not
Well Defined...And The Circulation Is Becoming Slightly Elongated
From Southwest To Northeast.

Aircraft Data Suggest That Debby Is Weakening...With Peak Flight-Level Winds Of 51 Kt At 850mb And Maximum Bias-Corrected Sfmr Observations Of Around 30 Kt. A Dropsonde About 80 Nm Southeast Of The Center Reported Surface Winds Of 33 Kt. Based On These Data...The Initial Intensity Is Estimated To Be 35 Kt.

Dry Air Continues To Wrap Around Circulation Of Debby...With Additional Dry Air Forecast By The Models To Advect Toward The Storm In The Next Day Or So.

Debby Is Expected To Weaken To A Depression While The Center Moves Across Florida...If Not Before.

Later In The Forecast Period...A Lessening Of The Shear And A New Supply Of Warm Water Could Allow Debby To Restrengthen Over The Atlantic.

Aircraft Fixes And Radar Imagery Indicate That Debby Is Drifting
Eastward...With The Initial Motion Estimate 090/03.

The Large-Scale Models Are In Good Agreement That A Longwave Trough Digging Along 70w Will Have Enough Amplitude To Carry Debby Across North-Central Florida During The Next 24-48 Hours.

Even Though The Western Atlantic Trough Lifts Out In About 2-3 Days...An Absence Of Ridging Across This Region Makes Debby Susceptible To The Mid-Latitude Westerly Flow...And The Cyclone Is Now Expected To Continue Moving Northeastward Through The Forecast Period. The Guidance...Including The The 06z Gfs Ensemble Members...Are In Better Agreement On A Faster Motion. The Latest Official Forecast Is Faster Than The Previous One But Still Slower Than The Bulk Of The Guidance.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 26/1500z 28.9n 84.2w 35 Kt 40 Mph
12h 27/0000z 28.9n 83.9w 35 Kt 40 Mph
24h 27/1200z 29.1n 82.9w 35 Kt 40 Mph
36h 28/0000z 29.3n 81.7w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
48h 28/1200z 29.6n 80.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph
72h 29/1200z 30.3n 77.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph
96h 30/1200z 31.5n 74.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph
120h 01/1200z 33.5n 72.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph

Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin

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