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Tropical Storm Karen Weakens More

Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 05 2013

Karen Barely A Tropical Storm...

Summary Of 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...28.1n 91.7w
About 115 Mi...185 Km Ssw Of Morgan City Louisiana
About 170 Mi...275 Km Wsw Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...N Or 360 Degrees At 2 Mph...4 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb...29.74 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Discontinued West Of Grand Isle Louisiana.

All Tropical Storm Watches Have Been Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Grand Isle Louisiana To The Mouth Of The Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case In The
Next 12 To 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States...
Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast
Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Karen Was
Located Near Latitude 28.1 North...Longitude 91.7 West.

Karen Is Moving Toward The North Near 2 Mph...4 Km/H. A Turn Toward The Northeast Is Expected Tonight Followed By A Turn Toward The East-Northeast And An Increase In Forward Speed On Sunday.

A Turn Toward The East Is Forecast Monday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Karen Will Move Near Or Over Portions Of Southeastern Louisiana Tonight And Sunday...And Move Just South Of The Gulf Coast From Alabama To The Florida Panhandle Sunday Night And Monday.

Data From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate
That Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts. Karen Is Expected To Weaken To A Tropical Depression On Sunday...And Become A Remnant Low By Monday.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...
Mainly To The East And Southeast Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In Portions Of The
Warning Area Tonight And Sunday...Mainly In Rainbands.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Heights Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Southeast Louisiana And The Mississippi Coast...1 To 3 Ft

The Highest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast...Where The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Dangerous Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Karen Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of
1 To 3 Inches Over Portions Of The Central Gulf Coast And Southeast
United States Through Monday Evening...Mainly Near And To The Right Of The Path Of The Center. Isolated Storm Total Amounts Of 6 Inches Are Possible.

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Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 11
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 05 2013

Karen Has Not Gotten Any Better Organized This Afternoon...As Dry
Air And Shear Continue To Affect The Cyclone.

While Some Convection Re-Developed Near The Center For A Time...The Center Has Actually Become Less Defined In Satellite Imagery Over The Past Couple Of Hours.

However...The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Found A Very Small Area Of Tropical Storm Force Winds On The Sfmr
Northeast And East Of The Center...So Karen Is Maintained As A
Tropical Storm For Now.

Data From The Aircraft Suggest That The Circulation Aloft Is Slowly Spinning Down...With Peak 850-Mb Flight-Level Winds Of Only 32 Kt.

Unfavorable Conditions Should Result In Karen Losing Strength During The Next Couple Of Days...And The Nhc Forecast Shows Weakening To Tropical Depression Status In 24 Hours.

As The Vertical Shear Increases... Remnant Low Status In Expected In 36-48 Hours...And Karen Is Expected To Dissipate Shortly Thereafter.

If The Center Of Karen Loses Definition...The Cyclone Could Dissipate Earlier.

The Motion Of Karen Continues To Be Irregular.

After Moving Near 10 Kt Early This Morning...The Cyclone Stalled This Afternoon As Convection Re-Developed Near The Center.

The Gfs And Ukmet Have Trended Toward The Ecmwf This Cycle... With These Models All Showing Karen Turning Toward The Northeast And Then Toward The East Ahead Of An Approaching Cold Front. The New Nhc Track Has Been Adjusted Southward Toward These Models And Shows A Track Near Or Over Southeastern Louisiana And Then Just Offshore Of The Northern Gulf Coast Through Dissipation.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 05/2100z 28.1n 91.7w 35 Kt 40 Mph
12h 06/0600z 28.6n 91.3w 35 Kt 40 Mph
24h 06/1800z 29.3n 89.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
36h 07/0600z 29.6n 87.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
48h 07/1800z 29.7n 84.4w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 08/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Brennan


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