Subtropical Storm Beryl Begins Move Toward Ga/Fla Coast

By: National hurricane center with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National hurricane center with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Edt Sat May 26 2012

Beryl Moving West-Southwestward...Tropical Storm Conditions Expected In The Warning Area On Sunday...

Summary Of 500 Am Edt...0900 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...32.3n 75.6w
About 180 Mi...285 Km Se Of Cape Fear North Carolina
About 260 Mi...415 Km E Of Charleston South Carolina
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...Wsw Or 255 Degrees At 5 Mph...7 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1001 Mb...29.56 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of Edisto Beach To South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United
States...Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Am Edt...0900 Utc...The Center Of Subtropical Storm Beryl Was
Located Near Latitude 32.3 North...Longitude 75.6 West.

Beryl Is Moving Toward The West-Southwest Near 5 Mph...7 Km/H.

A West-Southwest Or Southwest Motion With An Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected Through Sunday...With A Turn Toward The West Expected On Sunday Night.

On The Forecast Track The Center Of Beryl Will Approach The Coast In The Warning Area On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

A Little Strengthening Is Possible During The Next Day Or So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1001 Mb...29.56 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Coast
Within The Warning Area From Northeast Florida To South Carolina On
Sunday. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area
Along The Central South Carolina Coast Late Tonight Or Sunday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Coastal Portions Of South Carolina...Georgia...And North Florida...
1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
2 To 4 Inches Along The Southeastern Coast Of The United States
From Northeastern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Are Possible Along The Northeast
Florida...Georgia...South Carolina...And Central And Southern North
Carolina Coasts Over The Memorial Day Weekend.

Please See Statements Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office For Information Specific To Your Area.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Am Edt.

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Edt Sat May 26 2012

The Center Of Beryl Is Exposed About 90 Nm East Of The Remaining
Deep Convection. Overall...Cloud Tops Have Warmed Over The Past Few Hours As The Convection Has Moved Away From The Center.

However...Satellite Classification Remain Subtropical 2.5 From Both Tafb And Sab...And The Initial Intensity Will Be Kept At 40 Kt. Beryl Is
Still Entangled With An Upper-Level Low...And Water Vapor Imagery
Shows Dry Air Wrapping Into The Circulation From The South And
East.

Given These Factors...Only Slight Strengthening Is Expected During The Next Day Or So. If Convection Is Able To Persist Near The Center...It Could Lift The Tropopause And Erode The Upper-Level Low...Allowing Beryl To Transition To More Of A Tropical Structure Before Landfall As Seen In Fields From The Global Models.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Weaken To Depression Status...With Some Slight Strengthening Possible After The Center Emerges Back Over Water. The Nhc Forecast Is Similar To The Previous One And Follows A Blend Of The Decay-Ships And Lgem Models.

Overnight The Center Of Beryl Has Slowed...And The Initial Motion
Estimate Is 255/04. As Ridging Builds North Of The Cyclone Over The
Weekend...Beryl Should Accelerate Toward The West-Southwest Or
Southwest Today...And Turn Westward As The Center Approaches The
Coast On Sunday.

For The First 24 Hours The New Nhc Forecast Is An Update Of The Previous One...And From 24 To 48 Hours The Nhc Track Has Been Shifted A Bit To The Right Toward The New Tvca Multi-Model Consensus.

After 48 Hours...The Spread In The Track Guidance Increases Regarding How Far Inland Beryl Will Move And How Quickly It Accelerates Northeastward Ahead Of A Mid-Latitude Trough Moving Into The Eastern United States.

Some Of The Model Spread Appears To Be Due To Differences In How Much Beryl Weakens As It Moves Inland...As A Shallower Weaker Cyclone Will Not Be Picked Up As Quickly Ahead Of The Trough.

The Gfs And Gfs Ensemble Mean Show More Westward Progress... More Weakening...And Are Slowest With The Northeastward Motion.
At The Other Extreme...The Ecmwf Does Not Move Beryl As Far Inland...Maintains A Deeper Cyclone...And Accelerates It Northeastward Much Faster. Late In The Period The Nhc Forecast Is Between These Two Scenarios But Remains Slower Than The Tvca Consensus And Near The Right Side Of The Guidance Envelope.

The Initial 34-Kt Wind Radii Were Adjusted Inward Based On A 0226
Utc Ascat Pass.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 26/0900z 32.3n 75.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 26/1800z 31.8n 76.4w 40 Kt 45 Mph
24h 27/0600z 31.0n 78.1w 45 Kt 50 Mph
36h 27/1800z 30.6n 80.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph
48h 28/0600z 30.6n 81.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Inland
72h 29/0600z 31.0n 83.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 30/0600z 32.0n 80.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Over Water
120h 31/0600z 34.5n 75.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph

Forecaster Brennan

-------------------------------
Remarks by Oscar Fann follow...

BERYL was classified as a subtropical storm late Friday evening and this early morning release is the 2nd update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As noted in the NHC update above, BERYL probably will be reclassified as a tropical storm later Saturday or early Sunday - not that it makes any difference as to the expected strengthening. BERYL looks to remain tropical storm strength until landfall.

It appears now that BERYLl will move inland near Brunswick, Georgia sometime late in the day Sunday, then move slowly westward before stalling around Valdosta sometime Monday.

FOR NOW (and this really has not changed much since our first post early Friday morning), based on the data, trends and forecast, here's what we EXPECT IN THE WTVY-TV VIEWING AREA:

Wind effects will be minimal - 10 to 15 maximum with slightly higher gusts the farther east from Dothan you go.

Slightly higher wind gusts also could be expected east of Apalachicola in the Big Bend area of Florida (Carabelle, Alligator Point for examples).

The potential for periods of heavy rain look to be far enough east of Dothan as to be out of our coverage area - more likely near and east of Valdosta and Tallahassee.

Possible brief heavy showers RELATED TO BERYL could occur in our coverage area - but would be more likely east of Dothan - mainly southwest Georgia and areas of the Florida panhandle east of the Apalachicola River.

Severe Weather potential related to BERYL stll appears to be very low.
However, local thunderstorms anywhere in the WTVY-TV coverage area from Sunday night though the middle of next week could still have gusty winds and dangerous lighning.

Rain chances should hold off until late Sunday afternoon or more likely later Sunday night. Again, rain chances increase as you go east of Dothan and decrease as you go west of Dothan for Sunday night through Wednesday.

FOR NOW, early next week this weakened tropical low (BERYL) does not look to provide significant rain for most of our area...but areas of southwestern Ga and areas of the Fla panhandle east of the Apalachicola River may receive 1 to 2 plus inches.

IF BERYL weakens enough, it may not be driven back to the east by midweek. In that case it could still help set off afternoon & evening t-showers Wednesday and Thursday - again primarily east of Dothan.

(A poignant reminder: in early July1994 -
Tropical Storm Alberto made a quick pass through the area after a rather nondescript landfall near Destin. HOWEVER, Tropical Depression Alberto stalled inland notheast of Dothan, then began a slow drift back toward Dothan that eventually dropped rainfall amounts exceeding 8 to 10 inches - especially over southwest Ga - over a 3 to 4 day period. Flooding and deaths were the result. We don't expect that with BERYL - but a drifting inland tropical depression is cause for concern if BERYL gets stuck to our east. Again, that possibility is not likely for now.)

Memorial Day weather for the WTVY-TV coverage area still looks dry through most if not all of Sunday - with most of the shower chances for late Sunday remaining to the east of Dothan.

Beach weather should be unaffected through Sunday. Clouds will increase from east to west later Sunday and especially Monday. Even Monday looks mainly dry along the beaches, especially west of Panama City.

Regardless, ALWAYS check local beach conditions before entering the Gulf. Lifeguards and local officials are there to ensure you a safe and fun stay at the beach...please listen to their advice.

More about BERYL over this holiday weekend will be posted to this website in addition to our weather televison coverage at 8 am, 6 pm, 10 pm on Saturday and 5 pm, 10 pm Sunday (CDT).

Oscar


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