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Karen Now a Tropical Depression...Forecast to Weaken Further

Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 12
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 05 2013

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...28.1n 91.9w
About 120 Mi...190 Km Ssw Of Morgan City Louisiana
About 185 Mi...295 Km Wsw Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/H
Present Movement...Stationary
Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb...29.77 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

All Tropical Storm Warnings Have Been Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

There Are No Coastal Tropical Storm Warnings Or Watches In Effect.

Interests Along The North-Central Gulf Coast Should Continue To
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office At Weather.Gov.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Karen
Was Located Near Latitude 28.1 North...Longitude 91.9 West.

The Depression Is Stationary.

However...A Turn Toward The Northeast Is Expected Tonight... Followed By A Turn Toward The East-Northeast And An Increase In Forward Speed On Sunday.

A Turn Toward The East Is Forecast Monday. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Karen Will Move Near Or Over Portions Of Extreme Southeastern Louisiana On Sunday...And Move Just South Of The Gulf Coast From Alabama To The Florida Panhandle Sunday Night And Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours...And Karen Is Expected To Degenerate Into A Remnant Low By
Monday.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Storm Surge...Localized Coastal Flooding Is Possible Along Portions
Of The Northern Gulf Coast. For Information Specific To Your Area... Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Karen Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of
1 To 3 Inches Over Portions Of The Central Gulf Coast And
Southeastern States Through Monday Evening...Mainly Near And To
The Right Of The Path Of The Center.

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Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 12
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 05 2013

Karen Has Essentially Remained Stationary For The Last Several Hours And That Lack Of Motion...Coupled With Increasing Upper-Level Winds Ahead Of An Eastward-Moving Deep-Layer Trough...Has Increased The Shear Significantly Across The Cyclone.

The Result Is That Convection Has Weakened And Become Displaced Well To The East And Southeast Of The Low-Level Circulation Center. Satellite Classifications From Tafb Supported Keeping Karen As A Borderline Tropical Storm At 00z...But The Lack Of Convection Near The Center Since Then Requires A Downgrade To Depression Status At The 03z Advisory Time.

Given That The Vertical Wind Shear Is Forecast To Get Even Stronger Over The Next 2 Days...Re-Strengthening Back To Tropical Storm Status Is Not Likely...Especially Since The Mid-Levels Of The Troposphere Will Become Increasingly Drier As Well...Preventing The Re-Development Of Deep Convection Over The Center. As A Result...Tropical Storm Warnings Have Been Discontinued.

The Stationary Motion Of Karen The Past 6-9 Hours Has Been Due To A Northwest-To-Southeast Oriented Mid-/Upper-Level Ridge Located
Across Florida And The Southeastern United States...Which Has
Blocked Any Eastward Motion By The Cyclone.

This Blocking Pattern Is Expected To Shift Slowly Eastward Over The Next Two Days...Allowing Karen Or Its Remnants To Move In A Eastward To East-Northeastward Direction Until The Cyclone Dissipates In 48-72 Hours Or Is Absorbed By An Approaching Frontal System.

The Nhc Forecast Track Is Similar To The Previous Advisory And The
Consensus Model Tvca...And Shows Karen Passing Near Or Over The Extreme Southeastern Tip Of Louisiana In About 24 Hours...And
Remaining Just Offshore Of The Northern Gulf Coast After That.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 06/0300z 28.1n 91.9w 30 Kt 35 Mph
12h 06/1200z 28.7n 90.7w 30 Kt 35 Mph
24h 07/0000z 29.1n 88.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph
36h 07/1200z 29.3n 86.1w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
48h 08/0000z 29.5n 83.6w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 09/0000z...Dissipated

Forecaster Stewart


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