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Hurricane Ingrid Slows; Landfall Expected in Mexico by Monday Afternoon

the eye of a hurricane

the eye of a hurricane

Hurricane Ingrid Advisory Number 15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 15 2013

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...23.1n 96.5w
About 110 Mi...175 Km Ne Of Tampico Mexico
About 95 Mi...155 Km Ese Of La Pesca Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 290 Degrees At 6 Mph...9 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...989 Mb...29.21 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Cabo Rojo To La Pesca

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Bahia Algodones

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Rio San Fernando
* South Of Cabo Rojo To Tuxpan

Preparations To Protect Life And Property In The Hurricane Warning
Area Should Be Rushed To Completion.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Ingrid Was
Located By Noaa And Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Near Latitude 23.1 North...Longitude 96.5 West.

Ingrid Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Expected Tonight...Followed By A Turn To The West By Monday Afternoon And A Turn Toward The West-Southwest Monday Night.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Ingrid Should Be Very Near The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area By Monday Afternoon.

Data From The Two Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher Gusts. Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible Before The Center Reaches The Coast. Weakening Will Begin Once Ingrid Moves Over Land.

Hurricane-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles...30 Km...From The Center...And Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km...Mainly To Northeast And Southeast Of The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Based On Reconnaissance Reports Is 989 Mb...29.21 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Rainfall...Ingrid Is Expected To Produce 10 To 15 Inches Of Rain
Over A Large Part Of Eastern Mexico...With Isolated Amounts Of 25
Inches Possible...Especially In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain. These
Rains Are Likely To Result In Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud
Slides.

Wind...Hurricane Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Hurricane
Warning Area Monday Morning...With Tropical Storm Conditions
Expected Later Tonight.

Storm Surge...A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As Much As 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center Of Ingrid Makes Landfall. Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Destructive Waves.

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Hurricane Ingrid Discussion Number 15
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 15 2013

Satellite Imagery And Wsr-88d Radar Data From Brownsville Texas
Indicate The Improved Organization In The Convective Pattern
Earlier This Afternoon Has Abated...At Least For The Mean Time.
Around 21-22z...A Noaa Aircraft Measured A Central Pressure Of 987
Mb.

Since That Time...The Pressure Has Risen Slightly To Around 989
Mb. The Highest Wind Data Observed Thus Far Have Been 76 Kt At 850 Mb...62-63 Kt Sfmr Bias-Adjusted...Dropsonde Mean Boundary Layer Winds Of 64 Kt...And A Dropsonde Surface Wind Of 69 Kt. A Blend Of These Data Suggest That The Initial Intensity Remains Near 65 Kt...Which Means That Ingrid Is Barely Maintaining Hurricane Status.

After A Slight Jog To The Northwest Earlier This Afternoon...Ingrid
Appears To Have Returned To Its Previous West-Northwestward Course Of 290/05 Kt.

As A Result...No Significant Changes To The Previous Forecast Track Or Reasoning Are Required.

Hurricane Ingrid Should Gradually Turn Westward And Then West-Southwestward To The South Of A Building Mid-Level Ridge Across Texas And Northern Mexico During The Next 48 Hours.

The Nhc Model Guidance Has Come Into Better Agreement On The Timing Of Landfall...Which Should Occur In About 24 Hours Or So. The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The Previous Advisory And The Consensus Model Tvca.

A Comparison Of Radar Fixes At 35000 Feet And The Reconnaissance Surface Positions Indicate That Moderate Westerly Shear Is Still Tilting The Upper-Level Vortex To The East Of The Low-Level Center.

However...The Shear Is Forecast To Steadily Weaken Through The Time Of Landfall...Which Means That Some Slight Strengthening Is Still Possible...Especially Now That Ingrid Is Moving Into The Convective Maximum Period. The Cyclone Will Weaken Rapidly Once It Moves Inland Over The Mountainous Terrain Of East-Central Mexico.

In Addition To The Wind And Storm Surge Threats...Torrential Rains
From Both Ingrid And Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Manuel Are
Expected Across Eastern And Central Mexico During The Next Couple
Of Days. These Rains Will Likely Cause Life-Threatening Flooding And Mud Slides.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 16/0300z 23.1n 96.5w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 16/1200z 23.2n 97.1w 65 Kt 75 Mph
24h 17/0000z 22.9n 98.1w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Inland
36h 17/1200z 22.5n 99.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
48h 18/0000z 22.1n 100.0w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 19/0000z...Dissipated

Forecaster Stewart


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