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Beryl Moving More Westward, Landfall Later Sunday Evening: 5am Sunday Update

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 6
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Edt Sun May 27 2012

Beryl Moving A Little Faster Toward The Southeast U.S. Coast...Expected To Make Landfall Tonight...

Summary Of 500 Am Edt...0900 Utc...Information
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Location...30.5n 78.8w
About 175 Mi...280 Km Se Of Savannah Georgia
About 175 Mi...280 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...Wsw Or 255 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...998 Mb...29.47 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States...
Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast
Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Am Edt...0900 Utc...The Center Of Subtropical Storm Beryl Was
Located Near Latitude 30.5 North...Longitude 78.8 West.

Beryl Is Moving Toward The West-Southwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H.

A Turn Toward The West Is Expected Later Today...Followed By A Decrease In Forward Speed Tonight And Monday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Beryl Will Approach The Coast Within The Warning Area Today And Make Landfall Tonight Or Early Monday.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Move Slowly West-Northwestward And Then Turn Northward Over Portions Of Northeast Florida And
Southeast Georgia On Monday And Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected Before Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Weaken To A Depression On Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...150 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To First Reach The
Coast Within The Warning Area From Northeastern Florida To Southern
South Carolina Late This Morning Or This Afternoon And Continue
Through Tonight.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Coastal Portions Of South Carolina...Georgia...And North Florida...
1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions...Including Rip Currents...Are
Expected Along The Coast From Northeastern Florida To North
Carolina Over The Remainder Of The Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
3 To 6 Inches Along The Southeastern Coast Of The United States
From Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Am Edt.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 6
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Am Edt Sun May 27 2012

Beryl Still Has The Characteristics Of A Subtropical Cyclone...With
The Intermittent Convection In A Ring About 60-70 Nm From The
Center.

The Initial Intensity Remains 45 Kt Based On A St 3.0 Classification From Tafb. While Microwave And Goes Sounder Airmass Imagery Show An Increase In Moisture Near The Center Over The Last 24 Hours...Beryl Is Running Out Of Time To Intensify Before Landfall.

Given That The Convection Is Still Transient And The Cyclone Has Less Than 12 Hours Before It Will Be Approaching The Cooler Shelf Waters...The Nhc Forecast Shows No Change In Intensity Prior To Landfall.

Beryl Will Weaken To A Depression By 36 Hours As It Moves Slowly Inland.

Some Restrengthening Is Expected When The Center Moves Back Over Water After 72 Hours And Additional Intensification Is Forecast As Beryl Becomes Extratropical By The End Of The Forecast Period. The Nhc Intensity Forecast Is Close To The Lgem Through The Period.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 255/09...As The Cyclone Has Begun To
Turn More Westward Overnight.

Beryl Is Expected To Complete The Westward Turn Today As It Approaches The Coast...And Then Slow Down After Landfall As The Ridge To The North Weakens.

There Is Still A Large Amount Of Spread In The Guidance As To How Far Westward Beryl Will Move Over Northern Florida Or Southern Georgia.

The Gfs And The Gefs Ensemble Mean Remain Along The Western Edge Of The Guidance Envelope While The Ecmwf Is Situated Farthest East.

At 36 And 48 Hours...The Nhc Forecast Has Been Adjusted A Little To The West...But Remains Between The Tvca Consensus And The Ecmwf.

In The Latter Part Of The Forecast Period...The Guidance Has Come Into Better Agreement As To How Quickly Beryl Will Recurve Ahead Of A Mid-Latitude Trough.

The Slower Gfs And The Faster Ecmwf Have Both Trended Closer To Each Other And Toward The Tvca Consensus. The Nhc Forecast At Days 3 Through 5 Is Close To The Consensus...Lying Between The Gfs And Ecmwf And Close To The Gefs Ensemble Mean At Days 4 And 5.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/0900z 30.5n 78.8w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 27/1800z 30.4n 80.1w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 28/0600z 30.5n 81.9w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Inland
36h 28/1800z 30.8n 82.6w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
48h 29/0600z 31.2n 82.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 30/0600z 33.0n 79.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 31/0600z 36.0n 73.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Over Water
120h 01/0600z 40.0n 62.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

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Remaks by Oscar Fann follow...

After the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated a slight change in the inland track of BERYL during the late Saturday afternoon update, the NHC has almost gone back to the original thought of a weakened BERYL moving farther west, pulling up just short of Valdosta late Monday, then stalling briefly, before recurving and moving off to the northeast later on Tuesday.

Thus, our forecast for the WTVY-TV area remains essentially unchanged since our first update early Friday morning.

Briefly, that means rain chances enter the forecast Sunday night - about 20% for Dothan.

From Sunday night through midweek, the farther east you go from Dothan the higher the rain chances (and west from Dothan lesser rain chances prevail).

If BERYL's path continues as expected, we will lower Dothan's rain chances to 40% for Monday & Tuesday later today. FOR NOW, Dothan will be fortunate to receive about a half inch of rain relating to the effects of BERYL.

Rain amounts relating to BERYL look to be rather light for the period for most of the WTVY-TV coverage area, although 1, possibly 2 inches could be possible in parts of southwest Ga. and east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle Monday though Wednesday.

If BERYL's direction changes, then obviously the forecast changes, but as mentioned previously, there has been little change in the forecast since early Friday.

For now, winds will not be a factor, and the severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low.

Along the coast -
Beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend should remain unaffected through Sunday. Monday should see an increase in clouds, but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City would still have some sunshine. Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola. As we constantly stress - ALWAYS, check with lifeguards and local officals to get the very latest beach & marine conditions BEFORE entering the Gulf waters.

More updates through the holiday weekend here on our website as well as on WTVY-TV's regularly scheduled newscasts.

Oscar


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