Beryl About 24 Hours From Ga / Fla Landfall - 11pm Saturday Update

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 5
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sat May 26 2012

Beryl Moving Southwestward With Little Change In Strength...

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...30.8n 77.2w
About 215 Mi...345 Km Se Of Charleston South Carolina
About 270 Mi...435 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...Sw Or 230 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...998 Mb...29.47 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Watch For The South Carolina Coast North Of
Edisto Beach Has Been Discontinued.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Subtropical Storm Beryl
Was Located Near Latitude 30.8 North...Longitude 77.2 West.

The Storm Is Moving Toward The Southwest Near 7 Mph...11 Km/H.

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Tonight...With A Turn Toward The West Forecast On Sunday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Beryl Is Expected To Approach The Southeastern Coast Of The United States On Sunday...And Then Make Landfall Sunday Night Or Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected Before Landfall...With Weakening Expected After Landfall.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...150 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Coast
Within The Warning Area From Northeastern Florida To South Carolina On Sunday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Coastal Portions Of South Carolina...Georgia...And North Florida...
1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Are Expected Along The Coast From
Northeastern Florida To North Carolina Over The Remainder Of The
Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
3 To 6 Inches Along The Southeastern Coast Of The United States
From Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Beven

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 5
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sat May 26 2012

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Investigating Beryl
This Afternoon Found That The Storm Was A Little Stronger Than
Previously Analyzed. The Central Pressure Was 998 Mb...With
Maximum Flight-Level Winds Of 55 Kt And Surface Wind Estimates Of
40-45 Kt From The Sfmr. Based On These Data...The Initial Intensity
Was Increased To 45 Kt. Structurally...The Cyclone Has Changed Little During The Past Several Hours As Transient Bands Of Convection Form Near The Center.

The Initial Motion Is Now 230/6...And The Short-Term Motion May Be A
Little Faster.

Beryl Is Embedded In A Large Mid-/Upper-Level Low That Is Moving Southwestward As A Strong Ridge Develops To Its Northwest Over The Eastern United States. The Dynamical Models Forecast This Ridge To Move Eastward During The Next 36 H...And Then Weaken It As A Large Deep-Layer Trough Moves Eastward From The Central United States.

This Evolution Should Cause Beryl To Turn Westward And Make Landfall In The Southeastern United States Between 24-36 H.

After That Time...The Track Guidance Agrees That The Cyclone Will Stall And Then Turn Northeastward.

However... There Is A Large Spread On Where And When This Will Occur Between The Easternmost Ecmwf And The Other Models.

The New Forecast Track Has Been Shifted A Little To The West Of The Previous Track Through 48 H...But Remains East Of The Center Of The Guidance Envelope In Deference To The Usually-Reliable Ecmwf.

After Recurvature...The Guidance Agrees That Beryl Will Accelerate Northeastward...And This Is Reflected In The Official Forecast.

Overall...The New Forecast Track Is Faster Than The Previous One.

Satellite Imagery And Microwave Precipitable Water Data Suggest That The Environment Near Beryl Is Becoming More Moist...And The
Convection Is Gradually Getting Better Organized Around The Center.

These Two Factors Should Lead To The Transition Of Beryl Into A
Tropical Cyclone Before Landfall.

However...The Intensity Guidance Does Not Forecast Significant Strengthening During This Process.

Beryl Should Subsequently Weaken To A Tropical Depression Over
Land.

After Recurvature...The Dynamical Models Are In Good Agreement That Beryl Should Re-Intensify Over The Atlantic Despite The Presence Of Significant Vertical Wind Shear. The New Forecast Shows A Little More Strengthening Than The Previous Forecast Based Mainly On The Lgem Model.

The Analyzed And Forecast Wind Radii Have Been Reduced Based On The Aircraft Data.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/0300z 30.8n 77.2w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 27/1200z 30.4n 78.8w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 28/0000z 30.2n 80.9w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Tropical
36h 28/1200z 30.3n 82.2w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Inland
48h 29/0000z 30.7n 82.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 30/0000z 32.0n 81.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 31/0000z 35.0n 75.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Over Water
120h 01/0000z 39.0n 66.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Beven

--------------------------
Remarks by Oscar Fann follow...

After the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated a slight change in the inland track of BERYL during the late afternoon update, the NHC has almost gone back to the original thought of a weakened BERYL pulling up just short of Valdosta late Monday, then stalling briefly, before recurving and moving off to the northeast.

Thus, our forecast for the WTVY-TV area remains essentially unchanged since our first update early Friday morning.

Briefly, that means rain chances enter the forecast Sunday night - about 30% for Dothan.

From Sunday night through midweek, the farther east you go from Dothan the higher the rain chances (and west from Dothan lesser rain chances prevail).

However, rain AMOUNTS look to be rather light for the period, although 1 to 2 inches could be possible in parts of southwest Ga. and east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle Monday though Wednesday.

If BERYL's direction or path changes, then obviously the forecast changes, but there has been little change in the forecast since early Friday.

For now, winds will not be a factor, and the severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low.

Beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend should remain unaffected through Sunday. Monday should see an increase in clouds, but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City could still have sunshine. Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola.

More updates through the holiday weekend here on our website as well as on WTVY-TV's regularly scheduled newscasts.

Oscar


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