Atlantic Tropical Depression: Saturday Night - No Change

Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Sat Aug 23 2014

Depression Moving Northwestward Near The Southeastern Bahamas....

Summary Of 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...Information
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Location...22.3n 72.6w
About 90 Mi...145 Km Nne Of Great Inagua Island
About 355 Mi...575 Km Ese Of Nassau
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/H
Present Movement...Nw Or 320 Degrees At 9 Mph...15 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb...29.68 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Southeastern Bahamas...Including The Acklins...Crooked Island... Long Cay...The Inaguas...Mayaguana...And The Ragged Islands...As Well As For The Turks And Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas...Including Cat Island...The Exumas...Long Island ...Rum Cay...And San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within The Next 24 Hours.

Interests In The Northwestern Bahamas Should Monitor The Progress Of This System. A Tropical Storm Watch Will Likely Be Required For This Area On Sunday Morning.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Four Was Located Near Latitude 22.3 North...Longitude 72.6 West.

The Depression Is Moving Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/H.

A Northwestward Motion Is Expected To Continue Tonight And Sunday...Followed By A Turn Toward The North-Northwest And A Decrease In Forward Speed Sunday Night And Monday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of The Depression Will Continue Moving Near Or Over The Turks And Caicos And Southeastern Bahamas Tonight And Pass Near Or Over Portions Of The Central Bahamas On Sunday And Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours... And The Depression Is Forecast To Become A Tropical Storm Sunday.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Rainfall...
The Depression Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Totals Of 4 To 8 Inches Over The Southeastern Bahamas...The Turks And Caicos Islands...And The Central Bahamas Through Tuesday...With Isolated Amounts Around 12 Inches Possible.

Storm Total Rainfall Amounts Of Up To 12 Inches Are Possible In Portions Of Hispaniola...Where These Rains Could Produce Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides... Especially In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain.

Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Spread Northward Across The Warning Area Through Sunday Night.

Next Advisory
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Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Ast.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Ast.

Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Sat Aug 23 2014

Satellite Imagery Indicates That Tropical Depression Four Has Changed Little In Organization During The Past Several Hours.

While The Convection Remains Somewhat Ragged, A Persistent Area Of Stronger Convection Has Formed Near The Center. Data From Noaa And Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 30 Kt, Which Is In Agreement With The Satellite Intensity Estimate From Tafb. The Cirrus Outflow Is Good Over The Eastern Semicircle And Poor Elsewhere.

The Initial Motion Is A Somewhat Uncertain 320/8. The Cyclone Should Continue Moving Northwestward And North-Northwestward Into A Developing Break In The Subtropical Ridge Cause By A Mid- To Upper- Level Trough Off Of The U.S. East Coast.

As The Trough Begins To Lift Out And Steering Currents Weaken, A Slow Motion Is Expected In 36 To 48 Hours.

The Track Guidance Becomes Very Divergent At That Time.

The Ukmet And The Navgem Models Build Enough Ridging North Of The Cyclone To Steer It Across Florida And Into The Gulf Of Mexico. The Canadian Model Currently Forecasts A Quick Right Turn With The Cyclone Moving Well Out To Sea. The Ecmwf And The Gfs Keep A Stronger Ridge East Of The Cyclone And Thus Forecast A More Northward Motion East Of The Southeastern United States, Followed By A Northeastward Turn. However, The Gfs Does Show A Westward Wobble Just North Of The Bahamas Before The Turn.

The New Forecast Track Is Nudged A Little To The East Of The Previous Track, And It Lies A Little To The Left Of The Tvca Consensus And The Center Of The Guidance Envelope. As Mentioned In The Previous Discussion, The Confidence In The Track Forecast Is Lower Than Normal.

The Large-Scale Models Suggest That The Cyclone Should Experience Light To Moderate Westerly Or Northwesterly Vertical Wind Shear Throughout The Forecast Period.

The Intensity Guidance Forecasts Less Strengthening Than Earlier, Which Necessitates Some Downward Adjustment Of The New Intensity Forecast. Even With This Change, The New Forecast Is On The Upper Edge Of The Intensity Guidance. Overall, The Forecast Is Close To The Ivcn Intensity Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 24/0300z 22.3n 72.6w 30 Kt 35 Mph
12h 24/1200z 23.1n 73.4w 35 Kt 40 Mph
24h 25/0000z 23.9n 74.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
36h 25/1200z 24.4n 74.3w 45 Kt 50 Mph
48h 26/0000z 24.8n 74.6w 50 Kt 60 Mph
72h 27/0000z 27.0n 76.0w 60 Kt 70 Mph
96h 28/0000z 29.5n 77.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
120h 29/0000z 32.5n 75.0w 70 Kt 80 Mph

Forecaster Beven


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