8pm edt Sunday Update: BERYL Almost a Hurricane..Closing in on Jacksonville

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Pm Edt Sun May 27 2012
Beryl Near Hurricane Strength...Tropical Storm Conditions Already
On The Coast...

Summary Of 800 Pm Edt...0000 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...30.1n 80.5w
About 75 Mi...115 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
About 95 Mi...155 Km Se Of Brunswick Georgia
Maximum Sustained Winds...70 Mph...110 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 270 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...992 Mb...29.29 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 800 Pm Edt...0000 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Beryl Was
Located Near Latitude 30.1 North...Longitude 80.5 West.

Beryl Is Moving Toward The West Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H.

A Westward Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Move Slowly West-Northwestward And Then Turn Northward Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia On Monday And Monday Night.

Air Force Reconnaissance And Doppler Radar Data Indicate The Beryl Is Just Below Hurricane Strength With Maximum Sustained Winds Near 70 Mph...110 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected Prior To Landfall...But Any Additional Increase In Strength Would Make Beryl A Category One Hurricane.

Steady Weakening Is Forecast After Landfall...And Beryl Is Expected
To Weaken To A Tropical Depression By Monday Night.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...
185 Km From The Center. Jacksonville Beach Pier Recently Reported
Sustained Winds Of 50 Mph...80 Km/H...With A Gust To 58 Mph...95
Km/H.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force
Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 992 Mb...29.29 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Affecting The Coast Of
Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia. These Conditions Are Expected To Spread Inland During The Next Few Hours And Continue Through Tonight. Gusts To Hurricane Force Are Likely Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia Tonight And Early Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Georgia And Northeastern Florida...2 To 4 Ft
Southern South Carolina...1 To 2 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions...Including Rip Currents...Are
Expected Along The Coast From Northeastern Florida To North
Carolina Over The Remainder Of The Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
4 To 8 Inches...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches...From
Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Avila/Kimberlain/Franklin

---------------------------------------------------------
Remarks by Oscar Fann follow...

(No changes from the last update below two hours ago...by the way, should BERYL make it to a Category 1 Hurricane - a 50/50 chance - it would be the first hurricane to have a direct hit on Jacksonville since 1964)

Early Sunday evening update---------------

Since Saturday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has slowly moved the inland path of BERYL farther westward through extreme southern Georgia with each update.

Currently, NHC still has BERYL almost reaching Valdosta on Monday, then recurving and moving off to the northeast late Monday night or early Tuesday.

Thus, our forecast for the WTVY-TV area has remained essentially unchanged since our first update early Friday morning - until now.

CHANGES to our forecast for the WTVY-TV coverage area:

The changes are for winds and rainfall. Since BERYL is a little stronger at landfall and may not be downgraded to a tropical depression until later in the day Monday, we will make minor adjustments for wind speeds and rainfall amounts.

1st - only slight increases for the winds - look for gusts to be near 20 mph at times for Dothan Monday afternoon. Gusts would be a little higher farther east of Dothan as you would expect.

2nd - rainfall amounts may be slightly higher. Dothan has a good chance of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for the Monday to Wednesday period IF BERYL moves as slow as forecast. Thus, higher rainfall amounts could be expected to the east of Dothan. Generally, lesser rainfall west of Dothan, but there could be some decent rainfall there also.

1 to 2 inches look likely now for parts of southwest Georgia as well as east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle Sunday night though Wednesday.

If BERYL's direction changes, then obviously the forecast changes, but we don't see that currently.

Still, severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low for the WTVY-TV coverage area.

Along the coast -
As expected, beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend have remained unaffected through Sunday.
Monday should see an increase in clouds but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City would still have some sunshine.
East of Apalachicola sustained winds could exceed 20 mph at times with higher gusts.
Boating / Marine Advisories might be necessary.
Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola.
As we constantly stress - ALWAYS, check with lifeguards and local officals to get the very latest beach & marine conditions BEFORE entering the Gulf waters.

More updates through the holiday weekend here on our website as well as on WTVY-TV's regularly scheduled newscasts.

Oscar


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