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11pm edt Update: BERYL Making Landfall Near Jacksonville as a Tropical Storm

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 9
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun May 27 2012
Center Of Tropical Storm Beryl About To Move Inland...Tropical Storm Conditions Spreading Inland...

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...30.2n 81.1w
About 35 Mi...60 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
About 75 Mi...120 Km Sse Of Brunswick Georgia
Maximum Sustained Winds...70 Mph...110 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 270 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb...29.32 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Beryl Was
Located Near Latitude 30.2 North...Longitude 81.1 West.

Beryl Is Moving Toward The West Near 7 Mph...11 Km/H.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Should Cross The Coast Within The Warning Area During The Next Few Hours.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Move Slowly West-Northwestward And Then Turn Northeastward Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia On Monday And Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 70 Mph...110 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Beryl Should Begin To Weaken As The Center Moves Inland And Become A Tropical Depression In Day Or So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km From The Center.

Huguenot Park Near Jacksonville Beach Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 53 Mph...85 Km/H...With A Gust Of 68 Mph...109 Km/H.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Affecting The Coast Of
Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia. These Conditions Will Continue To Spread Inland Tonight And Monday.

Gusts To Hurricane Force Are Still Possible Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia Tonight.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Georgia And Northeastern Florida...2 To 4 Ft
Southern South Carolina...1 To 2 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions...Including Rip Currents...Are
Expected Along The Coast From Northeastern Florida To North
Carolina Over The Remainder Of The Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
4 To 8 Inches...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches...From
Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Avila/Kimberlain

-------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 9
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun May 27 2012

A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was In Beryl For Several Hours Earlier
This Evening And Reported Peak Flight-Level Winds Of 80 Kt...And A
Rain-Inflated Peak Sfmr Wind Of 62 Kt. Correcting The Sfmr Wind For
The Rain Yields 55 Kt. In This Case...The Surface To Flight-Level
Wind Speed Ratio Was A Little Lower Than Normal. Earlier Doppler
Radar Data Also Indicated Winds At 5000-6000 Ft As Strong As Those
Measured By The Aircraft At Flight-Level. However...The Plane
Measured Peak Sfmr Winds Of Only 50-55 Kt Within This
Region...Suggesting That Earlier Reduction Factor Was Reasonable.

Since That Time...The Strong Doppler Wind Speed Estimates Winds
Have Decreased While Dvorak Intensity Estimates Remain At About
3.5.

A Blend Of These Data Suggest That Beryl Is No Longer Intensifying ...And The Initial Intensity Is Kept At 60 Knots.

The Large Circulation Of Beryl Is About To Move Inland During The Next Few Hours...Leaving No Time For Any Additional Strengthening.

In Fact...Since A Portion Of The Circulation Is Already Inland... Weakening Should Begin Soon.

The Official Forecast Follows Dships Model While Beryl Is Over Land.

Some Restrengthening Is Possible When Beryl Emerges Over The Western Atlantic...But It Should Begin Extratropical Transition In About 4 Days.

Radar Fixes And Surface Data Indicate That Beryl Is Moving Toward
The West Or 270 Degrees At 6 Knots.

A Mid-Level Ridge To The North Should Continue To Steer Beryl Westward For The Next Day Or So.

Mid-Latitude Westerlies Are Forecast By The Global Models To Become Established Over The United States And The Western Atlantic. This Flow Pattern Should Carry Beryl East-Northeastward Over The Atlantic Until Dissipation.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 28/0300z 30.2n 81.1w 60 Kt 70 Mph
12h 28/1200z 30.3n 82.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Inland
24h 29/0000z 30.5n 82.7w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
36h 29/1200z 31.2n 82.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
48h 30/0000z 32.0n 81.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 31/0000z 34.5n 75.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Over Water
96h 01/0000z 37.5n 66.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 02/0000z 40.0n 55.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Avila/Kimberlain

-------------------------------------------------
Remarks by Oscar Fann follow.....
(Late Sunday evening)

BERYL is making landfall just south of Jacksonville Beach Sunday night around midnight edt.

BERYL did not make it to hurricane status - sustained winds peaked at 70 mph with its lowest pressure recorded at 992 mb. BERYL actually lost a little strength in the last few hours before landfall.

BERYL has slowed its forward speed a little - moving west at 7 mph versus 10 mph earlier this evening.

How slow BERYL weakens as well as how slow it moves will play pivotal roles in how much rain the WTVY-TV coverage area may receive.

If BERYL is slower to weaken and maintains its forward speed of 7 to 10 mph, then it is more likely BERYL recurves quickly to the north and northeast and exits south central Georgia by early Tuesday.

If BERYL weakens to a depression earlier than mid afternoon Monday and slows its westward speed to 5 mph, then there's a better chance BERYL travels a little farther westward and allows more rainfall to develop for our area - especially in southwestern Georgia and the area of the Florida panhandle that is east of the Apalachicola River.

Since we won't know these answers until later in the day Monday, we will go with this general forecast:

1st - Winds should not be a significant factor west of a Apalachicola to Albany line...wind gusts may reach 20 -22 mph Monday afternoon - even as far west as Dothan. Sustained winds and gusts would be slightly higher farther east toward Moultrie, Valdosta, Tallahassee and south into the Big Bend area of Florida and Apalachee Bay.

2nd - Rainfall amounts may vary noticeably for the Monday through early Wednesday period. Dothan should stay near or under an inch with lesser amounts west of Dothan. Parts of southwestern Georgia and east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle could receive 1 to 2 inches by Wednesday.

Regardless, severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low for the WTVY-TV coverage area.

Along the coast -
As expected, beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend remained unaffected through Sunday.
Monday should see an increase in clouds but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City would still have some sunshine.
East of Apalachicola sustained winds could exceed 20 mph at times with higher gusts.
Boating / Marine Advisories may be necessary in Apalachee Bay.
Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola.
As we constantly stress - ALWAYS, check with lifeguards and local officals to get the very latest beach & marine conditions BEFORE entering the Gulf waters.

Connor will have an update on WTVY-TV at 5am Monday, and I'll be in for Rob Monday night to see how BERYL is playing out.

Oscar


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