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Tropical Storm Debby Alters Course Slightly - Will Remain Nearby Into Monday

By: National Hurricane Center posted by Oscar Fann
By: National Hurricane Center posted by Oscar Fann

(for more on the local impact of Tropical Storm Debby, see the WTVY-TV weather page)

Summary Of 1000 Am Cdt...1500 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...28.0n 86.2w
About 190 Mi...310 Km Ese Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
About 140 Mi...220 Km Ssw Of Apalachicola Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph...95 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 40 Degrees At 6 Mph...9 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...994 Mb...29.35 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

A Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Extended Eastward Along The
Northwest Coast Of Florida To The Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued South Of The Suwannee River To Anclote Key.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Coast Of Louisiana From The Mouth Of The Pearl River Westward To Morgan City...Not Including The City Of New Orleans Or Lake Pontchartrain
* The Mississippi-Alabama Border Eastward To The Suwannee River
River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* South Of The Suwannee River To Anclote Key Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 12 To 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Am Cdt...1500 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 28.0 North...Longitude 86.2 West.

Debby Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 6 Mph...9 Km/H...But Little Motion Is Expected During The Next 12 To 24 Hours.

A Gradual Turn Toward The West Is Forecast Thereafter.

The Forecast Track Will Keep The Center Of Debby Meandering Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico During The Next Few Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph...95 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 48
Hours.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles...325 Km
From The Center Mainly To The North And East Of The Center.

Bald Point In The Florida Big Bend Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 52 Mph...84 Km/H.

The Latest Estimated Minimum Central Pressure From A Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 994 Mb...29.35 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Already Near Or Over Portions
Of The Northeast Gulf Coast And Are Expected To Reach The Remainder Of The Warning Area By Tonight...Making Outside Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Southeastern Louisiana Eastward Through Apalachee Bay...3 To 5 Ft
Florida West Coast South Of Apalachee Bay...1 To 3 Ft
Southwestern Louisiana...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of
Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Rain Accumulations Of 5 To
10 Inches Along The Immediate Gulf Coast From Southeast Louisiana
To The Central West Coast Of Florida...With Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible.

Given The Recent Heavy Rainfall And Wet Soil Conditions...These Additional Amounts Will Exacerbate The Flash Flood Threat Across Portions Of The Central And Eastern Gulf Coast.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of The
West-Central And Southwestern Florida Peninsula Today.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...100 Pm Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...400 Pm Cdt.

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 5
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Am Cdt Sun Jun 24 2012

It Is A Very Difficult And Highly Uncertain Forecast This Morning.

Debby Has Been Moving Very Slowly Toward The Northeast...040 At 3
Knots...While The Wind Radii Have Been Expanding In The Eastern
Semicircle. This Has Prompted Additional Tropical Storm Warnings
And Watches For Portions Of The Florida Coast.

Debby Continues To Be Sheared With Most Of The Thunderstorm Activity North And East Of The Center.

This Shear Is Expected To Continue For The Next Day Or So...Although Some Decrease In The Shear Is Possible After That...Particularly If The Ecmwf Verifies.

The Official Forecast Is A Little Less Aggressive Than The Previous
Forecast...But Remains Above Most Of The Explicit Intensity Guidance.

The Track Forecast Is Even More Complex.

The Gfs Insists On A Track Toward The Northeast As Debby Becomes Embedded Within A Large Mid-Latitude Trough.

However...The Ecmwf And The Hwrf Build A Ridge To The North Of Debby And Forecast A Westward Track.

Given The Westward Turn Inherited From The Previous Forecast...As Well As The Historical Strong Record Of The Ecmwf...The New Official Forecast Moves Debby Initially A Little Bit To The Northeast To Reflect
Current Trends But Then Turns The Cyclone Back Toward The West Or
West-Northwest In 24 To 36 Hours.

A Majority Of The Gfs Ensemble Members Now Are Consistent With The Deterministic Run...Which Was Not The Case Yesterday...Making A Stronger Case For The Eastward Solution.

We Must Be Ready To Make A Change Of The Forecast Track At Any Time.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 24/1500z 28.0n 86.2w 50 Kt 60 Mph
12h 25/0000z 28.5n 85.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
24h 25/1200z 28.5n 85.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 26/0000z 28.5n 86.2w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 26/1200z 28.7n 87.0w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 27/1200z 29.0n 88.4w 65 Kt 75 Mph
96h 28/1200z 29.5n 90.5w 45 Kt 50 Mph
120h 29/1200z 30.0n 91.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph

Forecaster Avila


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