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Tropical Storm DEBBY 1am Update Monday Jun 25: DEBBY Not Looking Very Healthy

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Summary Of 100 Am Cdt...0600 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...28.6n 85.8w
About 90 Mi...145 Km Ssw Of Apalachicola Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph...95 Km/H
Present Movement...Stationary
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb...29.32 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Mississippi-Alabama Border Eastward To The Suwannee River
Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* South Of The Suwannee River To Englewood Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Later Today.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 100 Am Cdt...0600 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 28.6 North...Longitude 85.8 West.

Debby Has Been Nearly Stationary During The Past Several Hours.

Little Movement Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days...But This Forecast Remains Uncertain Due To Weak Steering Currents.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph...95 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Some Gradual Strengthening Is Possible During The Next
48 Hours.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles...
325 Km...Mainly North And East Of The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue Over Portions Of
The Northeast Gulf Coast Through Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground At The Times Of High Tide Over The Next Few Days...

Apalachee Bay To Waccasassa Bay...4 To 6 Ft
Florida West Coast South Of Waccasassa Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Coastal Alabama Eastward To Apalachee Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Southeastern Louisiana To Coastal Mississippi...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
10 To 15 Inches Over The Florida Panhandle And Northern Florida...
With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 25 Inches Possible.

Surrounding This Area...Total Rain Accumulations Of 5 To 10 Inches Are Expected Over Central Florida And Southeast Georgia...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible.

Given The Recent Heavy Rainfall And Wet Soil Conditions...These Additional Amounts Will Exacerbate The Flash Flood Threat Across Portions Of Northern Florida And Southern Alabama.

Total Rain Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Expected Over Coastal
Alabama...Mississippi...Louisiana And South Florida...With Isolated
Maximum Amounts Of 6 Inches Possible.

Tornadoes...A Few Tornadoes Are Possible Today Across The Eastern Florida Panhandle...And Western And Central Portions Of The Florida Peninsula.

Next Advisory
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Next Complete Advisory...400 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Pasch

Thoughts & remarks by WTVY-TV meteorologist Oscar Fann...

DEBBY is currently in a world of hurt (dry air)...she's moisture starved and it will take awhile to regain her deep convection...

In fact, if this dry air intrusion continues, DEBBY may have trouble surviving period...

Tropical storms usually are pretty resilient, and with time moisture rebuilds in the storm's core...IF the dry air intrusion is limited and eventually ends.

However, there is plenty of dry air north and west of DEBBY waiting to be captured by the circulation of DEBBY. The moisture to the east will mix with the dry air to the north, while the deep moisture to the south may become too far removed for DEBBY's circulation to capture it.

Meanwhile, even though DEBBY is officially "stationary" the center has actually drifted noticeably to the north-northeast in the last 3 hours. There is also the possibility this slight NNE movement may continue..IF SO, then DEBBY may try to move through northeast Florida into south central or southeast Georgia.

Don't count DEBBY out just yet, but for now she's definitely wobbly and looking meteorologically anemic. Lots to watch on Monday.


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