Tropical Storm Bertha No Stronger...Moving Away from Bahamas

...Bertha Moving Away From The Southeastern Bahamas...

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...23.3n 73.2w
About 95 Mi...155 Km Ese Of San Salvador
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...NW Or 325 Degrees At 18 Mph...30 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1012 Mb...29.89 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of The Bahamas Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Warning For The Southeastern Bahamas And The Turks And Caicos Islands.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 23.3 North...Longitude 73.2 West.

Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 18 Mph...30 Km/H...And A Gradual Turn Toward The North-Northwest...North...And North-Northeast Is Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...Bertha Will Be Passing East Of The Central Bahamas Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160 Miles...260 Km From The Center...Mainly To The Northeast.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1012 Mb...29.89 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Rainfall...
Bertha Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Amounts Of Up To 5 Inches Across The Turks And Caicos Through Monday.

Next Advisory
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Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 12
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Aug 03 2014

After Bertha's Cloud Pattern Became A Little Better Organized Earlier Today, There Has Been Little Change In Its Overall Appearance Over The Past Several Hours.

There Are Limited Banding Features Over The Eastern Semicircle Of The Circulation, And The Deep Convection Is A Little Ragged-Looking. The Upper-Level Outflow Is Becoming A Little Better Defined, But There Is Still Some Northwesterly Shear Over The System.

The Current Intensity Is Kept At 40 Kt Based On Earlier Observations From The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft.

The Numerical Guidance Has Become A Little Less Bullish On Future Strengthening, But The Decay-Ships Model Still Calls For The Cyclone To Become A Hurricane In 60-72 Hours, As Does The Official Forecast.

It Should Be Noted, However, That The Intensity Model Consensus No Longer Predicts Bertha To Become A Hurricane.

Based On An Earlier Center Fix From The Aircraft, The Working Best Track Has Been Adjusted A Little To The East Of The Previous Estimates.

The Center Location Is Not Obvious On The Latest Visible Imagery, And The Initial Motion Estimate Is A Somewhat Uncertain 325/16 Kt.

The Track Forecast For The Next 48 Hours Or So Is Slightly Complicated By A Low- To Mid-Level Disturbance That Is Currently Near Florida. The U.K. Met. Office Global Model Forecast Shows Bertha Interacting With This Disturbance And Moving A Little Closer To The United States East Coast Than Earlier Runs. Other Global Models Such As The Gfs Do Not Show As Much Interaction And Keep Bertha Farther Offshore.

The New Official Track Forecast Has Been Nudged A Little To The Left Of The Previous One And Is Very Close To A Consensus Of The Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Solutions.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 03/2100z 23.3n 73.2w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 04/0600z 25.8n 73.8w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 04/1800z 29.0n 74.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 05/0600z 32.6n 73.2w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 05/1800z 35.7n 71.2w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 06/1800z 40.5n 63.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
96h 07/1800z 46.0n 53.5w 55 Kt 65 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 08/1800z 50.0n 44.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Pasch


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