Hurricane Cristobal Entering North Atlantic

Hurricane Cristobal Advisory Number 20
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Ast Thu Aug 28 2014

...Cristobal Heading For The North Atlantic...
...Large Swells Affecting The Mid-Atlantic And Northeast Coast Of The United States...

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
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Location...36.9n 65.9w
About 545 Mi...875 Km Ssw Of Halifax Nova Scotia
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 50 Degrees At 26 Mph...43 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...983 Mb...29.03 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Bermuda Weather Service Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Watch For Bermuda.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

None

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Cristobal Was Located Near Latitude 36.9 North...Longitude 65.9 West.

Cristobal Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 26 Mph...43 Km/H...And This General Motion With An Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected Over The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Cristobal Will Rapidly Move Toward The North Atlantic And Pass Well South Of Nova Scotia Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Some Strengthening Is Forecast Today....And Cristobal Is Expected To Become A Powerful Extratropical Cyclone Over The North Atlantic On Friday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 60 Miles...95 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205 Miles...335 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 983 Mb...29.03 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
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Surf...
Swells Generated By Cristobal Are Affecting Bermuda And The U.S. East Coast From North Carolina Northward Through New England. Large Swells Are Also Beginning To Affect Portions Of The Southern Coast Of Nova Scotia. These Swells Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions.

Next Advisory
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Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Cristobal Discussion Number 20
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Ast Thu Aug 28 2014

The Satellite Presentation Of Cristobal Has Become Much More Symmetric Than At Any Earlier Time During Its Life.

The Center Is Embedded Within An Area Of Deep Convection And A Warm Spot Has Become Evident In Recent Visible Satellite Images. T-Numbers From Both Sab And Tafb Are 4.0 On The Dvorak Scale And The Initial Intensity Is Set At 65 Kt. Some Strengthening Is Expected Today While The Hurricane Remains Over Warm Water.

The Cyclone Will Begin To Interact With A Frontal Zone Tonight And Should Complete Extratropical Transition On Friday. The Global Models Indicate That The Extratropical Low Will Remain A Powerful Cyclone Over The North Atlantic During The Next Few Days. The Low Is Forecast To Merge With Another Large Extratropical Cyclone Over The North Atlantic In 3 To 4 Days.

Cristobal Is Moving Northeastward At About 23 Kt. The Cyclone Should Continue To Accelerate Northeastward In The Mid-Latitude Westerlies During The Next Day Or So. The Updated Nhc Track Is Close To The Previous Advisory And Near The Middle Of The Guidance Envelope. The Track, Intensity And Wind Radii Forecasts Of The Extratropical Low Have Been Coordinated With The Ocean Prediction Center.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 28/1500z 36.9n 65.9w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 29/0000z 39.7n 59.9w 75 Kt 85 Mph
24h 29/1200z 43.8n 51.2w 75 Kt 85 Mph
36h 30/0000z 48.0n 43.5w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
48h 30/1200z 51.5n 36.5w 65 Kt 75 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
72h 31/1200z 61.1n 25.0w 60 Kt 70 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 01/1200z...Merged With Another Extratropical Low

Forecaster Brown


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