Beryl Slightly Stronger: Less than 12 Hours to Landfall Near Ga /Fla Coast

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 7
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Edt Sun May 27 2012

Reconnaissance Aircraft Finds Beryl A Little Stronger...

Summary Of 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...Information
Location...30.1n 79.6w
About 125 Mi...205 Km E Of Jacksonville Florida
About 135 Mi...220 Km Ese Of Brunswick Georgia
Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph...95 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 260 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...998 Mb...29.47 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...


Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United
States...Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...The Center Of Subtropical Storm Beryl
Was Located Near Latitude 30.1 North...Longitude 79.6 West.

The Storm Is Moving Toward The West Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H.

A Westward Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Move Slowly West-Northwestward And Then Turn Northward Over Portions Of Northeast Florida And Southeast Georgia On Monday And Monday Night.

Reports For An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate
That The Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 60 Mph...95 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Expected Before Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Weaken To A Depression On Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...150 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 998 Mb...29.47 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To First Reach The
Coast Within The Warning Area From Northeastern Florida To Southern South Carolina Late This Morning Or This Afternoon And Continue Through Tonight.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Coastal Portions Of South Carolina...Georgia...And North Florida...
1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions...Including Rip Currents...Are
Expected Along The Coast From Northeastern Florida To North
Carolina Over The Remainder Of The Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
3 To 6 Inches Along The Southeastern Coast Of The United States
From Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi


Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 7
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Edt Sun May 27 2012

Convection Has Been Increasing In Broken Bands Around The Center
Of Beryl During The Past Several Hours And It Appears That Beryl
May Be Transitioning Into A Tropical Cyclone. However...Given The Transient Nature Of The Earlier Convection And The Still Somewhat Large Area Of Lighter Winds Near The Center...Beryl Is Maintained As A Subtropical Cyclone For Now.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Investigating Beryl Recently Measured Peak 1000 Ft Flight-Level Winds Of 65 Kt And Believable Sfmr Winds Of 49 Kt. Based On These Data The Initial Intensity Is Raised To 50 Kt.

Beryl Will Be Moving Over The Slightly Cooler Shelf Waters And
Likely Does Not Have Enough Time For The Wind Field To Contract

Therefore...Little Change In Strength Is Anticipated Before Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Should Weaken To A Depression...Some Re-Strengthening Is Forecast After The Cyclone Reemerges Over The Western Atlantic In 2-3 Days. Beryl Is Expected To Become An Extratropical Cyclone Late In The Forecast Period... But This Could Occur Earlier Than Shown In The Official Forecast As Suggested By The Gfs.

The Aircraft Center Fixes Have Been A Little South And East Of The
Maximum Rotation Seen In Visible Satellite Imagery. The Initial
Motion Estimate Is 260/09.

Beryl Is Expected To Continue Moving Westward Through Landfall That Should Occur Later Today Or Tonight.

After That Time...The Cyclone Is Forecast To Slow Down And Turn
Northward...Then Northeastward As The Ridge Weakens And A
Trough Approaches The Eastern United States.

There Is Still A Large Difference Among The Models As To How Far West Beryl Will Move Before Turning Northward.

The Ecmwf Shows Beryl Turning More Sharply Northward...While Most Of The Remainder Of The Guidance Takes The Cyclone Well Inland Over Northern Florida/Southern Georgia.

The Nhc Forecast Has Been Nudged Westward But Still Lies To The East Of The Multi-Model Consensus Out Of Respect For The Ecmwf.

After The Northeastward Turn...The Model Guidance Is In Fairly Good Agreement On The Heading Of Beryl...But Differ On The Forward Speed. The Official Forecast Lies Between The Gfs And Ecwmf At 72 H And Beyond.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/1500z 30.1n 79.6w 50 Kt 60 Mph
12h 28/0000z 30.2n 80.9w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Tropical
24h 28/1200z 30.3n 82.3w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
36h 29/0000z 30.8n 82.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
48h 29/1200z 31.4n 82.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 30/1200z 33.5n 78.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Over Water
96h 31/1200z 37.0n 70.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
120h 01/1200z 41.0n 58.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

Remarks by Oscar Fann follow......

Since Saturday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has slowly moved the inland path of BERYL farther westward through extreme southern Georgia with each update.

Currently (early Sunday afternoon), NHC has BERYL almost reaching Valdosta on Monday, then recurving and moving off to the northeast late Monday night or early Tuesday.

Thus, our forecast for the WTVY-TV area remains essentially unchanged since our first update early Friday morning.

Briefly, that means rain chances enter the forecast Sunday night - about 20% for Dothan.

From Sunday night through midweek, the farther east you go from Dothan the higher the rain chances (and west from Dothan lesser rain chances prevail).

If BERYL's path continues as expected, we will lower Dothan's rain chances to 40% for Monday & Tuesday. FOR NOW, Dothan will be fortunate to receive about a half inch of rain relating to the effects of BERYL.

Rain amounts relating to BERYL look to be rather light for the period for most of the WTVY-TV coverage area, although 1, possibly 2 inches could be possible in parts of southwest Ga. and east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle Sunday night though Wednesday.

If BERYL's direction changes, then obviously the forecast changes, but as mentioned previously, there has been little change in our forecast since early Friday.

For now, winds will not be a factor, and the severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low.

Along the coast -
Beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend should remain unaffected through Sunday. Monday should see an increase in clouds, but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City would still have some sunshine. Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola. As we constantly stress - ALWAYS, check with lifeguards and local officals to get the very latest beach & marine conditions BEFORE entering the Gulf waters.

More updates through the holiday weekend here on our website as well as on WTVY-TV's regularly scheduled newscasts.


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